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ALDS Series Breakdown Guardians v. Yankees

By Ryan Potts
October 11, 2022
Photo by: SI.com

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees (10/11 @ 7:37 PM EST.)

Line: Guardians +150/Yankees -200

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Cleveland Guardians (92-70) are heading to the Bronx for a five-game series with the New York Yankees (99-63) that begins Tuesday at 7:37 p.m. ET. The Yankees are -200 favorites to advance to the ALCS.

During the regular season, the Yankees won five of six matchups. The Yankees swept the three games played in New York. Cleveland only salvaged one game out of their home series. This will be the sixth time that the Yankees and Guardians have played in the playoffs. The Yankees won in the 2020 AL Wild Card, 2017 ALDS, and 1998 ALCS. The Guardians won in the 2007 ALDS and 1997 ALDS.

Cleveland Guardians Overview

The Guardians advanced to the ALDS after a stunning 15th-inning walk-off home run. In the Wild Card series, the Guardians allowed just one run across 24 innings. On the other hand, they only scored three runs in those same innings: a Jose Ramirez two-run home run and an Oscar Gonzalez solo home run.

The Guardians are a pitching-heavy team led by their top-of-the-line arms and a bullpen ace in Emmanuel Clase. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie pitched nearly flawless baseball to get the Guardians into the next round of the playoffs. The Guardians have other solid arms including Cal Quantrill, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale who can start early games in the Yankees series. Quantrill is the probable starter for Game 1 of the ALDS.

Cleveland’s offense is nothing to sneeze at, however. Andres Gimenez and the aforementioned Ramirez had highly productive seasons. Josh Naylor had as many clutch hits as any player in baseball. Steven Kwan grinds out at-bats and will be a consistent presence on the basepaths. When the Guardians get men on, they are liable to steal bases. Five different players stole 18 bases while only Naylor and Ramirez hit 18 home runs.

New York Yankees Overview

Any conversation about the 2022 Yankees begins with Aaron Judge. Judge, the presumptive MVP, hit an American League record 62 home runs. He led the American League in runs, home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. He also stole 16 bases and played well defensively.

Beyond Judge, the Yankees need their sluggers to continue their form from September. Anthony Rizzo launched 32 home runs and 21 doubles in his first full season in the Bronx. Giancarlo Stanton had plenty of struggles making contact, but 31 of his 84 hits went over the fence. Gleyber Torres turned in a solid season with 24 home runs and 10 steals, heating up in September. The Guardians might opt to pitch around Judge, so the rest of the lineup needs to drive Judge home.

The Yankees’ pitching staff had a strong season. Gerrit Cole will start Game 1 of the ALDS after leading the AL in strikeouts. He has had issues keeping the ball in the ballpark (AL-leading 33 home runs allowed), but the Guardians do not offer as much power as many of the Yankees’ opponents. Cole is clinical at limiting hits and walks, so if the Guardians can hit the long ball, they will often be solo home runs.

Beyond Cole, the Yankees have Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino who perhaps were even better than Cole this season. Cortes pitched to a 2.44 ERA with a 12-4 record. Severino had a 3.18 ERA and a 7-3 record. The bullpen was also very good with the likes of Clay Holmes, Lucas Luetge, and Wandy Peralta posting strong seasons.

TakingVegas.com Pick: Yankees -200

The Yankees dominated the season series, losing just once. While both teams had great Septembers, the Yankees likely had a more sustainable model of victory. The Guardians relied on shortening games with elite starting pitching and elite bullpen arms. The Yankees could hang a couple of runs on the Guardians staff, forcing low-leverage arms into action in the middle innings.

The Yankees led the Majors in home runs, so it may only take a few swings to send the Yankees to the ALCS for the third time since 2017.

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