Free Pick Breakdown Bivol v. Alvarez (5/7/22) - Taking Vegas



Free Pick Breakdown Bivol v. Alvarez (5/7/22)

By TakingVegas Staff Writer
May 6, 2022

Dmitry Bivol vs Canelo Alvarez

May 7th, DAZN PPV

Trust us when we tell you that this will be a very, very tough fight for Canelo Alvarez at 175 pounds. Yes, he’s the unified champion at 168 pounds and it might not seem like moving up another 7 pounds is a lot, but we feel Canelo finally bit off more than he can chew.

For starters, the total in this fight tells you it is going to go the distance. Under 10.5 rounds is currently listed at +240. The oddsmakers expect this to go to the scorecards so to us, that means they do not expect Canelo to knock Bivol out.

Over 10.5 rounds is a massive favorite in this fight but we do not want to look at that because while we feel this fight will indeed go the distance, one punch can end it at any time.

Instead, we will look at Dmitry Bivol as a huge underdog here. We get it, Canelo has won every professional fight he’s ever been in except for the Mayweather fight when he was 23 years old, and no one can blame him for losing to Floyd.

But, remember this, that fight, 9 years ago, was at a catch weight of 152 pounds. From that point until this point, Canelo will have jumped 4 different weight classes to now fight at 175. That is just not wise, as gifted as he may be.

Bivol is undefeated and his last 6 fights have gone the distance so that plays into why this total is set where it is set at. Also, that power that Canelo had at 154, 161, and 168 pounds might not be there for him against a legit Light Heavyweight.

To get Bivol at +410 tonight is just too much value to pass up. He has a great jab and will; keep Canelo off of him because of it. This guy reminds us of a bigger version of GGG and Canelo struggled with him. You could make a case he lost both of those fights and Golovkin fights at 159 pounds. Going up 16 pounds in weight class is just too much to ask and by the time the fight begins, Bivol will have rehydrated up to possibly 180-185 pounds. He’s just too big and at this price he is well worth a bet. 3* Free Pick, Dmitry Bivol, +410 to beat Saul Canelo Alvarez.

Do not forget to call for our top rated play on Game 3 between Memphis and Golden State this evening.