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Free Pick Breakdown Cowboys v. Rams (10/9)

By Ryan Potts
October 8, 2022
Photo by: Harry How - Getty Images

Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams (10/9 @ 4:25 PM EST.)

Line: Rams -5.5
Total: 42

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams Breakdown and Betting Odds

The red-hot Dallas Cowboys (3-1) are heading to Los Angeles to face the reigning champion Los Angeles Rams (2-2) Sunday afternoon at 4:25 ET. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites over the Cowboys, and the over/under is set at 42.

The Rams have won three of the last four matchups, including a playoff game after the 2018 season. The teams last played in Week 1 of the 2020 season with the Rams edging out a victory. The all-time series is tied 18-18.

Dallas Cowboys Overview

Since losing star quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have won three games in a row. Cooper Rush is the only quarterback in Cowboys’ history to win his first four starts with the team. The defense has led the way, keeping all four of Dallas’ opponents under 20 points. Micah Parsons has 4.0 sacks and six tackles for loss, leading the team. DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong have also chipped in with 3.0 sacks.

The offense has been a bit of a concern. The Cowboys are 27th in scoring (17.8 points per game), but the Cowboys are getting healthier. Rush has been able to move the ball, throwing for four touchdowns on 102 pass attempts. He has a 95.9 passer rating, one of the better marks in the league. The Cowboys have been safe with the football. Through four games, they have only turned it over twice.

The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS this season including 3-0 with Rush at quarterback. The under is 3-1 in their games with the only over coming by 0.5 points in Week 3 against the New York Giants. No game involving the Cowboys has seen more than 39 points scored. The Cowboys have been heavier underdogs once in 2022, +7 against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.

Los Angeles Rams Overview

The Rams have stumbled out of the gate, particularly on offense. While they have a pair of wins to their name, they also have two multi-score losses against the best two teams they have played. They rank in the bottom five in both points scored and yards gained. The offensive line has been injured to no end, so the Rams are susceptible to teams with good pass rushers. Matthew Stafford has compounded the problem by throwing six interceptions.

Cooper Kupp continues to be historically productive. In 2022, he has 42 catches for 402 yards and three touchdowns. He has been targeted on more than a third of Stafford’s passes. Beyond Kupp, Tyler Higbee has 26 catches for 244 yards, and the Rams have two running backs with at least 100 yards and a touchdown. The Rams do have a talented defense with former All-Pros in Aaron Donald, Bobby Wagner, and Jalen Ramsey. They have only allowed eight offensive touchdowns in four weeks including just four in the last three weeks.

The Rams have won both games they were favored in (1-1 ATS) while losing both games they were underdogs in (0-2 ATS). In the only game that the Rams were home favorites, they beat the Atlanta Falcons but were unable to cover the spread. The under is 3-1 in Rams games, missing by at least a touchdown in all three wins.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: Under 42

Neither of these teams has been interested in scoring. With two of the least effective offenses facing two star-studded defenses, Under 42 is the bet to take. Both teams’ games are 3-1 in hitting the under, and 42 leaves enough wiggle room in case one team’s offense breaks out of its funk. In games either team has been involved in, the under is 3-1 when it is set at 42 or below.

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