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Free Pick Breakdown Diamondbacks v. Phillies (6/10/22)

By Taking Vegas
June 10, 2022
Photo by: Norm Hall - Getty Images

ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA
7:05 PM EST
LINE: PHILLIES -145
TOTAL: OVER 8.5

Philadelphia has won 7 straight games since firing Joe Girardi and have won a couple games in this streak that they had no business winning but that’s what happens when a team gets hot. Bryce Harper has been light’s out as the DH and obviously the rule change was good for Philadelphia this season because had pitchers been hitting in the NL, Harper wouldn’t be playing right now.

Arizona hasn’t been awful this season, but they are 3 games under .500 with a 28-31 record, off 2 straight wins. While we feel Philadelphia has a better shot at winning tonight than Arizona does, we are going to look at the total because we don’t want to lay -150 with a below average starting pitcher on the mound.

Kyle Gibson lasted just 3 1/3 innings in his last outing which was against a struggling Angels team. He allowed 6 hits and 5 earned runs and the Phillies have lost 3 of his last 4 starts. In 4 of his last 5 starts, there have been at least 9 runs scored and overall, he has a 4.40 ERA. Arizona has scored 20 runs in their last 3 games as they got it going a little after the back-to-back shutouts on Sunday and Monday.

The starting pitcher for Arizona tonight, Zach Gallen, hasn’t gotten past the 6th inning in his last 5 starts and while he’s been decent this season, we feel the Phillies will get to him tonight, especially with the way they have been hitting the ball as of late. The Phillies have scored at least 4 runs in 9 of their last 10 games and in those 10 games they have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game.

Our metrics show us this total should be set at 9.5 so we have some great value here with it being set at 8.5. We feel this game will get to double digits, so we are going to put our money on the Over here.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free MLB Pick. Over 8.5 Runs Diamondbacks / Phillies (Gallen / Gibson)

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