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Free Pick Breakdown Dodgers v. Brewers

By Taking Vegas
August 16, 2022
Photo by: Jeff Hanisch -USA TODAY Sports

LA Dodgers at Milwaukee 8:10 PM EST
Line: Milwaukee -130
Total: 8.5
Pitching Match-up: Pepiot / Woodruff

Game 2 of this 4-game series takes place this evening in Milwaukee with the Dodgers off a solid 4-0 win last night. It was a nice bounce back for LA after their shutout loss vs Kansas City the prior night.

We are going to look at the total though for tonight as even though the Dodgers have played low scoring games the past 2 games, the prior 4 games there were no less than 11 runs combined in any of those games.

Brandon Woodruff takes the mound for the Brewers tonight and he has been good at home as he has a 2.38 ERA in games played at Milwaukee. Games he pitches in though do tend to be high scoring as if you go back to his starts from April 26th, a span of 14 starts, the average final score has added up to 9.2 runs. Obviously, the Dodgers possess a solid lineup, and they should be able to score some runs this evening.

Ryan Pepiot is on the hill for Los Angeles this evening and while he’s been consistent, he hasn’t seen the 6th inning in any of his 5 starts this season and the average final score of those 5 starts has been 10.2 runs per game. In his last start vs Minnesota, he lasted 4 1/3 innings, allowing 5 hits and 4 earned runs.

Our metrics tell us this total should be set at 9.5 so we are catching some value here with it being set at 8.5. At worst, we expect this to be a 5-4 final either way but it wouldn’t surprise us at all if this game easily got into double digits.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: Over 8.5 Runs Dodgers / Brewers

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