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Free Pick Breakdown Mavericks v. Golden State (5/26/22)

By Taking Vegas
May 26, 2022
Photo by: Kyle Terada - USA Today Sports

Dallas at Golden State (Game 5)
9:00 PM EST TNT
Line: Golden State -7
Total: 215.5

Game 5 takes place tonight in Golden State with the Warriors up 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals and looking to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals. Dallas comes in off the Game 4 win where they avoided the sweep but extending this series to a 6th game will be a tall task. However, we are not overly thrilled about laying 7 in this game so we are going to look at the total.

There is a trend that we feel lends value to this game. In their first round series vs Denver, Golden State was up 3-0 and lost game 4 on the road. They came back home to close out the Nuggets with a 102-98 win in Game 5. That game stayed under the posted total by 26 points.

In their second round series, Golden State was up 3-1 against Memphis and lost a close out game on the road. They came home for Game 6 and won 110-96. That game stayed under by 12 points.

Now Golden State was up 3-0 in this series against Dallas, and they lost the close out game on the road in game 4. Now they come home for Game 5 and what Golden State has proven through the years is, they win close out games at home and they play great defense in those games.

In Game 4, they mostly played a zone and just let Dallas shoot from 3. That will not be the case tonight as we feel Golden State will go back to their tough man defense and while everyone knows how good the Warriors are on offense, what people do not realize is they were the 2nd ranked defense in the league this season.

By the way, regarding Dallas and their playoff run, in Game 5 vs Utah the final score added up to 179. In Game 5 vs Phoenix, the final score added up to 190.

We expect both teams to play solid defense in this one which is why our free pick is under 215.5.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: Under 215.5 Dallas / Golden State

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