Line: 49ers -3.5
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Breakdown and Betting Odds
The San Francisco 49ers (9-4) are looking to clinch the NFC West with a win over the Seattle Seahawks (7-6) on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET). The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 43.5 points.
The Seahawks have dominated the lifetime rivalry, winning 30 of 48 matchups. San Francisco has only won eight of 26 matchups since 2010. However, they crushed the Seahawks in the first matchup this season, posting their first double-digit win over their rivals since 2010. The teams have slightly different makeups now, but the 49ers are expected to finish off the sweep this year. They have not swept the Seahawks since 2011. On the other hand, Seattle swept the series in 2014-2017, 2020, and 2021.
San Francisco 49ers Overview
The 49ers might be the hottest team in the NFL. Since losing to the Chiefs to fall to 3-4, the 49ers have ripped off six wins a year. Five of their six wins have come by 13 or more points, and they have knocked off back-to-back playoff teams. The 49ers are one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL, ranking among the league’s elite in a variety of metrics. They are a serious contender to win the Super Bowl. With a win this week, the 49ers would clinch the NFC West for the first time since 2019. They are the No. 3 seed in the NFC, but they are only one game behind the Vikings.
San Francisco’s offensive metrics are slightly misleading considering the slew of injuries they have faced, but the talent is plentiful. Deebo Samuel looked to have avoided serious injury last week, and he is only the tip of the spear. George Kittle is one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Brandon Aiyuk leads the team in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey is a game-changer. The only offensive question is about rookie Brock Purdy. Purdy made his first NFL start last week, throwing for 185 yards and two touchdowns. If Purdy maintains this level, the 49ers could win out and go deep in the playoffs.
The 49ers have been infallible defensively since Week 7. They are first in points allowed, yards allowed, first downs allowed, rushing yards allowed, yards allowed per rush, and scoring percentage allowed. If it can be quantified, the 49ers probably perform well in the category. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in 11 of 13 games including holding the Seahawks to seven points in Week 2. Since the bye, the 49ers have allowed 10 points per game. They have allowed more than 322 yards in just one game. They have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games. Nick Bosa stirs the defensive drink, racking up 14.5 sacks. Talanoa Hufanga has been a playmaker on the backend with five forced turnovers. The unit as a whole has been one of the best in franchise history.
The 49ers are 8-5 ATS, but they have covered each of the last four weeks. As favorites, the 49ers are 8-3 straight up and 7-4 ATS. In the first matchup with the Seahawks, the 49ers were 8.5-point favorites, and they covered easily. The under is 7-6, but the over hit in three of the last four weeks. The 49ers have scored 33 or more in three of the last four weeks, so they have been doing most of the work.
Seattle Seahawks Overview
The wheels are beginning to come off for the Seahawks. They opened 6-3, but they have dropped three of four. They are now outside of the playoff picture, trailing the Commanders and Giants by 0.5 games. Their next three games are against teams who currently have a winning record. The offense has continued to produce behind Geno Smith, but the defense is becoming increasingly inept. The Seahawks must answer in a big way to stay in the hunt.
The Seahawks rank sixth in the NFL in scoring and 13th in the league in yards. They are in the top 10 in both yards per pass and yards per rush. Quarterback Geno Smith has had a Pro Bowl season, but he is in a bit of a rut. After a stellar Week 8 performance, Smith has an interception in four of the last five weeks. Per Pro Football Focus, Smith has 12 turnover-worthy plays in the last five weeks, and he has not had a grade better than 75 since Week 8. The Seahawks have dealt with injuries at the running back position with Rashaad Penny out for the season after a hot start. Rookie Kenneth Walker is currently nursing an injury. The receiving game has been much more reliable. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have nearly identical stats. Both players will finish with around 90 catches, 1,100 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
The defense has been rough. The Seahawks rank 30th in points scored and 28th in yards allowed. Their pass defense has been manageable, but the rushing defense has been putrid. They are 28th in yards allowed per rush leading to the second-most yards allowed. They have allowed 200 rushing yards in two of the last three weeks, and they have allowed at least 120 in five straight. In the first matchup with the 49ers, Seattle allowed 189 yards on the ground. The Seahawks have some defensive studs in free-agent signing Uchenna Nwosu (9.0 sacks) and rookie Tariq Woolen (six interceptions), but the unit as a whole can be beaten.
The Seahawks are 6-7 ATS, and they are in the middle of a 0-4 stretch dating back to Week 9. They were favored in each of the last three weeks, only winning once. Seattle has played better as underdogs, going 5-3 both straight-up and ATS. The over is 8-5, going on a hot streak in the last three weeks. The Seahawks have been a perfect match with the over because of their explosive offense and putrid defense.
Free Pick: 49ers -3.5
The 49ers dominated the first matchup, and they are even better suited to dominate this time around. In the Week 2 matchup, the Seahawks did not score an offensive touchdown, and the 49ers’ defense is much improved from that point. The 49ers had to make a mid-game quarterback chance in the first matchup as well. The 49ers should easily Cover -3.5 and clinch the NFC West.