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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Alabama vs. Ole Miss (11/12/2022)

By Ryan Potts
November 11, 2022
Photo by: Photo by Kevin C. Cox - Getty Images

Alabama vs. Ole Miss (11/12 @ 3:30 p.m. EST.)

Line: Alabama -11.5
Total: 64.5

Alabama vs Ole Miss Breakdown and Betting Odds

The No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) are heading to Oxford to face the No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1) Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Crimson Tide are 11.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 64.5.

Alabama has dominated Ole Miss for the history of the rivalry, going 53-10-2. Since 2004, Alabama has won all but two matchups. In their current six-game winning streak over the Rebels, Alabama has scored no fewer than 42 points. They surpassed 60 points in 2017, 2018, and 2020, blowing Ole Miss out by 63 in 2017. In recent years, Ole Miss has been able to score (33.3 points per game over the last three matchups), but the Tide have won five in a row by at least 15.

Alabama Overview

Comparatively speaking, Alabama is in the middle of a down year. They have lost two games before the Iron Bowl for the first time in more than a decade. They got out to a promising 6-0 start before losing an instant classic against a then-undefeated Tennessee. They bounced back with a blowout win over Mississippi State, but LSU pulled the upset last week. Barring an LSU collapse in their last few weeks, Alabama will not even play for the SEC championship.

Despite having a “down” year, Alabama is still among the sport’s elite. They are ranked in the top 10 in both polls (No. 9 in the College Football Playoff rankings and No. 10 in the AP poll). Quarterback Bryce Young is the reigning Heisman winner, and he could be the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young is having a strong season even if it is not quite as good as his 2021 season. Beyond Young, Jahmyr Gibbs has stabilized the rushing attack, averaging nearly seven yards per carry. He has tacked on six rushing touchdowns as well. In the passing game, Gibbs has the most catches, but Ja’Corey Brooks leads the team with 473 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns (tied with Traeshon Holden).

The Tide still have an elite defense by the numbers, but the unit is not quite as talented as in years passed. However, Will Anderson might be the best defensive player Alabama has produced in many years. He leads the team with 13.0 tackles for loss and 7.0 sacks despite much of the opposition’s game plan being designed to stop Anderson. Behind Anderson, Dallas Turner has had a solid season as a counterpunch, and Kool-Aid McKinstry has 12 pass deflections in coverage. Alabama has struggled to force turnovers, averaging less than one takeaway per game.

Alabama has been mortal this season ATS, dropping three of their last five games. They did have two massive wins over Arkansas (-17.5) and Mississippi State (-21) in that span, but they lost outright as 8.5-point and 13.5-point favorites. They also failed to cover -24.5 against Texas A&M. The over is 3-2 in the last five games, corresponding with Alabama alternating between remembering how to play defense and forgetting.

Ole Miss Overview

Ranked No. 11 in both main polls, Ole Miss has managed to work through its schedule to an 8-1 record. They have been ranked the whole season, but they spent three weeks within the top 10 in the AP poll after upsetting No. 7 Kentucky. They inched up to No. 7 in the country before losing to an unranked LSU by 25. Ole Miss replied to the loss with a close win against Texas A&M to move up to No. 11.

Ole Miss has been scoring aggressively. They rank 16th in the country in points per game on the heels of a multi-faceted attack. Jaxson Dart might not be Matt Corral, but he has twice as many touchdowns as interceptions. Ole Miss has 27 rushing touchdowns so far including 13 from Quinshon Judkins. Zach Evans has added seven more. The rushing focus has hurt the overall receiving numbers, but Jonathan Mingo has still cobbled together 664 yards and four touchdowns.

Like Alabama, Ole Miss has a strong defense statistically, but they might not be as the numbers suggest. They rank 34th in points allowed per game, but they can be exploited through the air. The rush defense has been a bit more stout, but it is not an elite unit. Jared Ivery leads the team with 4.5 sacks. Khari Coleman has chipped in with 8.5 tackles for loss. Ole Miss has had better luck forcing turnovers than Alabama, averaging 1.4 takeaways per game.

Ole Miss is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games, only covering -17 against Vanderbilt. In their last game, they pushed -3 against Texas A&M. In their last game as underdogs, Ole Miss lost by 25 to LSU. The over has hit in four consecutive games ranging from 55.5 points to 64 points.

Free Pick: Over 64.5

Both sides of the spread have some value as both teams have struggled in recent weeks. However, both teams have elite offenses. If there is a week to capitalize on an Alabama bounce back game, it would be against a Lane Kiffin that Alabama has historically shredded. Similarly, Ole Miss should have its way with the Alabama defense if they can work around Will Anderson. No matter if the result is a back-and-forth affair or an Alabama blowout, Over 64.5 should be on the cards.

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