Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina (11/3/2022) - Taking Vegas



Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina (11/3/2022)

By TakingVegas Staff Writer
November 3, 2022
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Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (11/3 @ 7:30 EST)

Spread: Mountaineers -3
Money Line: App State -145 / CCU +125
Total: 64

Overview and Betting Info

The renowned Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-3) will visit the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-1) Thursday night in a matchup between Sun Belt rivals. The Chanticleers have beaten the Mountaineers just once (2020). CCU leads the Sun Belt East with a conference record of 4-1, while App State sits at 2-2 and will need a win to keep their conference title hopes alive.

Both teams are 2-3 against the spread over their last five games, hitting the under three times each. The Chanticleers are 2-0 against the spread this year as a home underdog, while the Mountaineers are just 2-5 as a favorite.

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Quarterback Chase Brice leads the Mountaineer’s offense. The former Duke and Clemson transfer has been excellent all season, with 1,921 passing yards and 25 combined touchdowns. He has the most passing touchdowns in the conference and ranks third in passer rating. Brice runs an offense averaging 459 yards per game and uses a balanced attack between passing (251 YPG) and rushing (208 YPG). He’d been helped by a talented pair of receivers, Dashaun Davis and Christan Horn. Davis leads the team with receptions (31), while the speedy Horn leads in yards (414) and touchdowns (4). Watch for the latter to see a lot of deep balls against a struggling CCU secondary.

The Mountaineers also have a talented group of running backs, leading them to an average of 200 yards on the ground. App State has five backs with at least 20 carries on the year, but they mainly use a rotation of their top three. The group is led by Camerun Peoples (86 carries), who has gone for 551 rushing yards and 5 TDs despite splitting carries with Nate Noel (45 carries) and Daetrich Harrington (54 carries). While Peoples has had success getting 15+ carries, App State continues to use a combination of the three. The Mountaineer’s previous two losses came when Peoples received four or fewer carries. We’ll see if that trend continues Thursday.

The Appalachian State defense ranks 17th in the country, allowing an impressive 309 yards per game. They’ve been rolling the last few weeks, holding opponents to 17 or fewer points in three of their previous four games. Their secondary has been the best in the Sun Belt, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 57% of their passes for an average of 179 yards per game. They’re helped by Nick Hampton continuing to find his way into opposing backfields, and his seven sacks are the second most in the Sun Belt. As good as the secondary is, the Mountaineers will need Hampton and the defensive line to create pressure against a talented Grayson McCall.

Coastal Carolina

The Chanticleers are atop the Sun Belt standings thanks to the play of quarterback Grayson McCall. The red-shirt junior has 2,061 passing yards, nineteen touchdowns, just one interception, and a team-high four rushing touchdowns. He’s relied on a talented set of receivers in Sam Pickney and Jared Brown. Pickney has another great year, leading in receptions (45) and touchdowns (5). Freshman Brown has been an explosive threat downfield, averaging 18 yards per catch and leading the team in yards (628).

Coastal Carolina has a clear leader in the backfield with CJ Beasley. He has 106 carries along with 559 yards and four touchdowns but may lose more carries to the now-healthy Reese White. The senior back returned from injury two weeks ago, and he’s the better playmaker of the two. White is averaging more yards per carry than Beasley, but he’s also had issues hanging on to the ball. Before his injury, he lost three fumbles in his previous two games. White’s been clean since his return to action and averaged an impressive 7.2 yards per carry last week, meaning he could see an uptick in carries Thursday.

The CCU defense has struggled and is among the conference’s worst secondaries. They have some playmakers in safety Jahmar Brown (3 sacks) and corner Lance Boykin (2 INT, four pass deflections, one sack, and one forced fumble). They’re joined by linebacker JT Killen, who is fifth in the conference in tackles and is the leader on the field. Their run defense is coming off a decisive win, but they’re just two weeks removed from giving up over 300 yards to an underwhelming Old Dominion team.

Free Pick: Over 64

We know CCU’s defense can be beaten, but we also don’t trust this App State defense. Their stats make them a top-20 unit, but two recent games have inflated them against terrible teams (Citadel and Robert Morris). When they’ve been tested by teams of CCU’s caliber (James Madison & Texas State), they’ve given up over 30 points. We see them doing so again against an elite CCU offense playing at home.

We’ll take the over and look forward to seeing a fun one Thursday night!