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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Baylor vs. Texas (11/25/2022)

By Wendi Oliveros
November 22, 2022
Photo by: Mikala Compton - American-Statesman

Baylor vs. Texas (11/25 @ 12:00 PM EST.)

Spread: Texas (-7.5)
Total: Over 56

Overview and Betting Info

For those who do not shop on Black Friday, this is college football’s must-see alternative. This clash of Big 12 opponents: the Baylor Bears (6-5, 4-4 in Big 12) versus the 24th ranked Texas Longhorns (7-4, 5-3 in Big 12) is shaping up to be an exciting game to watch.

Baylor is coming off a 29-28 loss to TCU while Texas defeated Kansas by the score of 55-14.

Baylor

The Baylor Bears are led by sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen who has thrown 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in 2022. He is a dual sport athlete, also playing shortstop on the Baylor baseball team. Shapen has relied on a backfield led by freshman Richard Reese who also has scored 14 touchdowns for the Bears. Shapen has thrown for over 2,400 yards this season, and his favorite receiver is sophomore Monaray Baldwin who is also a special teams threat.

Baylor has scored an average of 34.2 points per game while giving up an average of 25.5 points.

Texas

Like Shapen, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has 14 touchdown passes in 2022. He threw for approximately 1,600 yards and tossed 6 interceptions. Texas running back Bijan Robinson is putting his name up there with some of the best Longhorns running backs in history including Ricky Williams, Earl Campbell, and Jamaal Charles. He has rushed for 1,401 yards in 2022 with 16 touchdowns. The expectation is that this will be Robinson’s last regular season game in a Longhorns uniform. He is compared to New Orleans Saints Alvin Kamara and is projected to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. Rounding out the Texas offensive scoring leaders is wide receiver Xavier Worthy who has 614 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Texas has an over two touchdown gap between points scored and allowed. In 2022, the Longhorns have scored an average of 35.6 points per game while allowing 20.6.

Free Pick: Over 56

The yardage gained and allowed by these two teams makes this game closer than the point spread. Baylor has outgained Texas by 10 yards per game on average (442.7 to 432.9), and Texas has allowed an average of 2 more yards per game than Baylor (369.5 to 367.5).

Both offenses are potent evidenced by Texas’s 55 points over Kansas last week and Baylor’s 28 in a tough loss to 4th ranked TCU. This will be an offensive shootout, making the Over 56 pick the best option.

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