Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Bills vs. Bengals (1/2/2023) - Taking Vegas

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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Bills vs. Bengals (1/2/2023)

By Michael Savio
December 30, 2022
Photo by: Unknown (Contact us for credit)

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals (1/2 @ 8:30 PM EST)

Spread: Bills -1
Money Line: Bills -117 / Bengals -103
Total: 49.5

Overview and Betting Info

The Buffalo Bills (12-3) will head to Cincinnati Monday night for a primetime matchup with the Bengals (11-4). The Bengals have won four of the previous six matchups between these two teams. The Bills have won six straight and clinched the AFC East and are battling for the top seed in the AFC, while the Bengals have won seven straight and are just one game up on the Ravens for the AFC North title.

The Bills are 7-7-1 against the spread this season and have covered four of their last ten games. They have gone over the point total of five times and only once on the road.

The Bengals are 12-3 versus the spread and have covered nine of their last ten games. They have gone over the total five times but have been under in four of their previous five games.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills’ offense is averaging 411.69 yards (2nd in NFL) and 28 points (4th in NFL) per game this season. Josh Allen is sixth in the NFL with 4,029 yards and 32 touchdowns. Allen has also been electric with his legs, with 746 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. He’s coming off a disappointing performance against the Bears, but he still managed to score three combined touchdowns. Allen is boosted by one of the league’s top receivers, Stefon Diggs. The veteran wideout is third in the NFL with 1,325 yards to go with ten touchdowns. He joins Gabe Davis (797 yards, 7 TD) and Dawson Knox (504 yards, 5 TD) to round out their receiving corps. We’ll be keeping an eye on Knox in particular, as the tight end has scored in his last three games.

The Bills’ run game is helmed by Devin Singletary, who leads the team with 790 yards and five touchdowns. The back is coming off his best game of the season (106 yards, 1 TD) and has been a great compliment to Josh Allen. Expect to see James Cook (492 yards, 2 TD) get a lot of carries Monday as well, as he is coming off a game where he went for 99 yards and a touchdown. The trio of Allen, Cook, and Singletary gives the Bills one of the most dangerous run attacks in the league.

The Bills’ defense is allowing 336.3 yards (7th in NFL) and 17.5 points (2nd in NFL) per game this season. They’ve been impressive despite losing Von Miller (8 sacks, 10 TFL) for the season. The defense has gotten a boost from pass rushers Greg Rousseau (7 sacks, 9 TFL) and AJ Epenesa (6.5 sacks, 7 TFL). Both have been fantastic, with Epenesa registering a sack in four straight games. Keep an eye on linebacker Matt Milano too, as he leads the team with 12 tackles-for-loss. In the secondary, the Bills rely on Jordan Poyer (8 PD, 4 INT) and Dan Jackson (12 PD, 2 INT), who have both been excellent this season. They’ll be challenged Monday as they face the Bengals’ vaunted pass attack.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati offense is averaging 385.2 yards and 26.1 points per game this season. They are led by Joe Burrow, who has thrown for 4,260 yards (2nd in NFL) and 35 touchdowns (2nd in NFL). He’s been on fire in the second half of the season thanks to improved play from his offensive line. Burrow had been sacked 29 times through the Bengals’ first eight games but has only been sacked ten times in their last seven games. Burrow has seven touchdowns in his previous two games and went for 375 yards in a win against the Patriots last week. He is helped by a now-healthy receiving corps led by Tee Higgins (1,022 yards, 7 TD) and Ja’Marr Chase (960 yards, 8 TD). Higgins has a four-game touchdown streak, while Chase has at least seven catches in each game since October 9th. When this dup can’t get open, watch out for Tyler Boyd (711 yards, 5 TD), who has thrived as the third receiver in this offense.

The Bengals’ run game is led by Joe Mixon, who has 787 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, with another 400 yards and two touchdowns through the air. He’s been seeing an increase in catches the last two games, with 12 catches for 76 yards in his previous two games. While Mixon has looked much better in the second half of the season, Samaje Perine is still earning himself more snaps and has been effective when Mixon has been out or struggling. Expect both to get plenty of action on Monday.

The Cincinnati defense is allowing 342.5 yards and 20.4 points per game to opposing teams. They have played well over their last five games, allowing just 18 points per game during that stretch. The defensive line is led by a pair of talented pass rushers up front, Sam Hubbard (6.5 sacks, 57 tackles, 11 TFL) and Trey Hendrickson (6 sacks, 5 TFL). Hubbard picked up an injury a couple of weeks ago and is now questionable to play on Monday, which could be an issue for a Bengals team with just two players registering more than 2.5 sacks. In the secondary, Cincinnati has been led by the play of safety Von Bell ( 4 TFL, 1 sack, 7 PD, 4 INT, 2 FF). He’s been an aggressive playmaker all over the field and is joined by another talented safety in Jessie Bates III (7 PD, 3 INT). They’ll be the key to containing Josh Allen and this dangerous Bills passing attack.

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