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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Capitals vs. Stars (10/27/2022)

By Ryan Potts
October 27, 2022
Photo by: NHL.com

Washington Capitals vs. Dallas Stars (10/27 @ 8:30 p.m. EST.)

Line: Stars -125
Total: 6.5

Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Washington Capitals (4-3-0) are heading to Texas to face the Dallas Stars (4-2-1) on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Stars are -125 favorites over the Capitals. The over/under is set at 6.5 goals.

The Stars have dominated the lifetime matchup, but they have split the last 10 matchups. The Capitals have won four of the last five matchups in Dallas, scoring at least four goals in all of their wins.

Washington Capitals Overview

The Capitals have gotten off to a streaky start to the season. They opened with back-to-back losses, but they have won four of their last five games including a three-goal win at New Jersey. The Capitals have been led by one of the NHL’s top offenses, scoring 26 goals, sixth best in the league.

Captain Alex Ovechkin gets much of the coverage, but left winger Conor Sheary leads the team with four goals. Centers Dylan Strome and Evgeny Kuznetsov have five assists each to lead the team. Strone, Ovechkin, and defenseman John Carlson have accounted for six points each to lead the way. Ovechkin is the third-highest goal scorer in NHL history, so each game is a must-watch affair.

Washington has struggled to stop their opponents, however. Darcy Kuemper has a save percentage below .900 while Charlie Lindgren has a 3.09 GAA. Kuemper won the Stanley Cup last season with the Colorado Avalanche, but he has not quite matched the form he had for the first 10 seasons of his career. He had a career .918 save percentage and 2.48 GAA before his underwhelming start to his Capitals’ tenure.

In their last five games, the Capitals are 3-2 ATS including 2-1 ATS on the road. Four of their last five games have hit the over including the last four games. In their last game, the Capitals won as +114 underdogs.

Dallas Stars Overview

Dallas got off to a rolling start, taking nine points from their first five games. However, they stumbled in the final two games of their four-game road trip, losing to Ottawa and Boston. They are still the top team in the Central, but they need to stop their skid. Dallas is led by an impressive defense that conceded just three goals in the first three games. All told, Dallas has allowed more than three goals just once, their loss in Ottawa.

Offensively, Dallas has a solid unit. They are 10th in the NHL with 23 goals scored. They are led by ageless wonder Joe Pavelski’s four goals. Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson have contributed five assists and seven total points, equaling Pavelski’s point total.

On the goaltending front, Jake Oettinger has gotten off to a blazing start. In his five games, he has conceded just seven goals, good for a GAA of 1.41. He has a ludicrous save percentage of .953. Backup Scott Wedgewood has been above league average in his two starts. His save percentage of .907 and GAA of 3.49 are far from extraordinary, but he has been capable.

The Stars are 3-2 ATS in their last five games including a cover in a one-goal loss in Toronto. The under has hit in four of five games. In their most recent game, under 5.5 goals hit as the Stars fell to Boston 3-1. The Stars covered, won, and hit the under in their most recent home game.

Free Pick: Stars -125

The Stars have been excellent at home so far this season, so Stars -125 should be the go-to. With Oettinger in the net, the Stars can ride the hot hand and squeeze out a low-scoring win. Under 6.5 goals is also a solid bet with the rock-solid nature of Dallas’ defense. While the Capitals have ripped off four wins in five games, they have yet to gain even a point on the road. On neutral ice, perhaps Washington would have the advantage, but the Stars should take the home game.

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