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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Cowboys vs. Packers (11/13/2022)

By Ace Margolis
November 11, 2022
Photo by: Cooper Neill - Getty Images

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers (11/13/22 – 4:25 pm EDT)

Line: Dallas -4.0
O/U: 44

It’s Week 10 in the NFL and teams are beginning to play to prepare for postseason runs as the NFC East’s Dallas Cowboys head into Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon to take on the NFC North’s Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys are coming off a 49-29 dismantling of the Chicago Bears at home while the Packers couldn’t figure out the Detroit Lions on the road, losing 15-9.

Dallas Cowboys Analysis

Dallas opened up the season with a tough 19-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football that looked to be a prelude to what was to come this season. They couldn’t score any touchdowns plus their starting QB, Dak Prescott, would go down with an injury that would knock him out a few games. Fast-forward to now and the Cowboys are 6-2 on the season and in second place in the NFL’s best division, the NFC East, behind the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas has gone 6-2 against the spread but only 2-5-1 versus the over/under.

The 2022 season appeared to be gloomy until they played defending AFC champion Cincinnati in Week 2 and escaped with a 20-17 victory. Except the Cowboys didn’t stop there, did they? No, they would wind up reeling off four straight wins before losing to the only undefeated team left in the NFL, the Eagles, in Week 6. In that span, they would beat both the aforementioned Bengals and the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. Three of those four games were won without Prescott as backup Cooper Rush took over and went 3-0.

One may ask how the heck Dallas is doing it. In short, defense. Lots of great defense, starting with defensive superstar Micah Parsons who is third in the NFL with eight sacks on the year, two forced fumbles, and a TD. He leads a defense that holds opponents to only 16.6 points a contest, third-best in the NFL while their 178.4 passing yards allowed ranks fourth overall. On offense, Prescott is still trying to return to form so they’ve relied heavily on a running game that churns out 131.5 yards a game, the 11th-best in the league.

Green Bay Packers Analysis

The Packers have had the opposite kind of trajectory this season from the Cowboys as they have been in a downward spiral since winning three of their first four games to open the season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, 38, remains at the helm for Green Bay but at 3-6, the team is going nowhere fast as they’re tied for second place in an NFC North division that has the Minnesota Vikings in full command at 7-1. After nine games, the Packers are just 3-6 versus the spread as well as 3-6 against the over/under.

Opening the season with a loss to the Vikings, Green Bay would recover well and go on to win their next three games against the Bears, Buccaneers, and Patriots. At 3-1, the Packers looked like one of the better teams in the NFL. That wouldn’t last past Week 4 as Green Bay has now lost five consecutive games after only managing to put up nine points in Week 9’s loss to the Lions. Most concerning is the fact that Rodgers looks awful and the offense looks even worse as they have very little talent at the receiver position after trading away superstar receiver Davante Adams in the offseason.

In last Sunday’s game against the Lions, Rodgers would throw for 291 empty yards as he completed less than 50% of his passes and tossed three interceptions. If it weren’t for the Packers’ defense, the team could have even more losses as they’ve managed to keep the team somewhat afloat by holding opposing passing games to only 170.6 yards a game, second-best in the NFL. In addition, they’re sixth overall in yards allowed, only giving up 309.1 yards a contest.

Free Pick – Dallas -4.0

Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy will be returning to Green Bay where he coached Rodgers and the squad for 13 years so this game will mean a bit more to him. He won one Super Bowl in his tenure there and now has a great defense ready to attack the Packers’ deteriorating offense this Sunday. The Packers have not looked good in any offensive aspect of the game the last five weeks and that could spell doom against a tough Cowboys defense that preys on opposing QBs by disrupting the line of scrimmage behind Parsons and a defense that leads the NFL with 33 sacks. As Green Bay tries to navigate out of this deep hole they’ve dug, it will be hard to do so against an upstart Dallas team that appears prepared to play four quarters every Sunday. As Rodgers continues to show his age with each game, it looks unlikely he can turn it around against the tough defense he’ll be facing on Sunday afternoon. We like Dallas -4.0.

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