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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Giants vs. Cowboys (11/24/2022)

By Michael Savio
November 22, 2022
Photo by: AP Photo

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys (11/24 @ 4:30 PM EST)

Spread: Cowboys -9
Money Line: Giants +313 / Cowboys -380
Total: 44.5

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Overview and Betting

The New York Giants will celebrate Thanksgiving by heading to Dallas for a matchup with the Cowboys. The Cowboys have dominated the series, leading 72-47-2 overall and winning ten of their last eleven matchups. Both teams are two games back in the NFC East and will likely compete for the same wild card slot.

The Giants are 7-3 against the spread, going 5-1 as an underdog. They’ve covered three of their last five games. New York has gone over the total three times this season, including once in their previous five games.

The Cowboys are 7-3 against the spread, going 4-1 at home. They are 3-0 as a home favorite. Dallas has gone over the point total four times, but three of those came in the last five games.

New York Giants

The offense has thrived despite a lack of receiving talent, averaging a respectable 352 yards per game. Daniel Jones, who has been solid all season, helms the unit. He’s been a dual threat with 1,937 pass yards, 437 rush yards, and a combined 13 touchdowns. It’s impressive, considering the Giants have been plagued by injuries to an already thin receiving corps. Darius Slay has emerged as the top threat after Sterling Shepard went out, leading the team with 413 yards and two touchdowns. The group lost emerging rookie Wan’Dale Robinson to injury last week, so we could see Kenny Golladay work his way back into the offense on Thursday. You can expect Diggs to keep Slayton locked down, so the Giants will need other pass catchers to step up if they want to move the ball.

While Jones has been good, this offensive success is primarily due to the play of Saqoun Barkley. The veteran back is second in the NFL with 953 rushing yards to go along with six touchdowns and has been active in the passing game with 210 receiving yards. He and Jones lead a run attack that ranks fourth in the league with 157.2 yards per game. Barkley is coming off his worst game of the season, where the Lions held him to just 1.7 yards per game.

The Giant’s defense allows 359.7 yards per game, but they’ve struggled over the last three weeks. The secondary is led by safety Julian Love (73 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 INT), but they may be without cornerback Fabian Moreau who picked up an injury last week. Moreau has been fantastic this season, so his loss will be felt against the talented Cowboys passing game. The defensive line features breakout Dexter Lawrence, who leads the team with five sacks and four tackles for loss. Dexter will be critical in stopping the Cowboy’s dangerous run attack on Thursday.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboy’s offense has been great all season, averaging 345.5 yards per game despite injuries to Dak Prescott. The veteran quarterback is back in the lineup and has gone for over 250 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games, though he also has three interceptions. He is helped again by star wideout Cedee Lamb, who leads the team with 751 yards and five touchdowns. He has dominated the passing game with more catches than the next two receivers combined. He is now joined by Michael Gallup, who is back from injury and settling in nicely to the #2 spot. With the Giants down yet another defensive back, expect to see both receivers and tight end Darren Schultz get a lot of looks on Thursday.

The Cowboys feature one of the elite running back duos in the country with Ezekiel Elliot (486 yards, 6 TD) and Tony Pollard (701 yards, 5.9 YPC, 6 TD). Pollard has been an explosive playmaker on the ground and through the air, with 243 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Elliot has been doing the heavy lifting, featured chiefly in short-yardage and red-zone situations. They will be up against a Giant’s defense coming off its worst game, so we expect this duo to have another big outing.

Dallas’ defense is allowing an impressive 338 yards per game and are coming off a win against the Vikings, where they surrendered just three points. Their pass defense has been among the best in the league, and they allow the fewest points per game in the NFL (16.7). Linebacker Micah Parsons is second in the league with 10 sacks to go along with an impressive three forced fumbles. He’s a nightmare for opposing offenses and should play a significant role against Barkley and the Giant’s offense. In the secondary, the Cowboys are led by safety Donovan Wilson (team-high 68 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFL, 1 INT) and cornerback Trevon Diggs (13 PD, 3 INT), who leads a secondary that allows the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL (174.5). It’s an impressive unit that will look to build off its incredible performance last week.

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