Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Giants vs. Eagles (1/21/2023) - Taking Vegas

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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Giants vs. Eagles (1/21/2023)

By Michael Savio
January 18, 2023

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles (1/21 @ 8:15 PM EST)

Spread: Eagles -7.5
Money Line: Giants +290 / Eagles -348
Total: 48

Overview and Betting Info

The New York Giants (9-7-1) will head to Philadelphia on Saturday to take on the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles (14-3). These division rivals played twice this season with the Eagles winning both. Philadelphia won the NFC East and are coming off a bye while the Giants beat the Vikings on the road last week.

The Giants were 14-4 against the spread this season and have covered seven of their eight road games. They have gone over the total eight times, including in three of their last four games.

The Eagles are 8-9 versus the spread and have covered just three of their last ten games. They have gone over the total ten times but have been under in three of their last four games.

New York Giants

The Giants’ offense was in the middle of the pack this season, averaging 333.9 yards and 21.8 points per game. They are coming off a fantastic performance against the Vikings, where they went for a whopping 431 yards on offense. Daniel Jones has had a solid season through the air (3,205 yards, 15 TD) and on the ground (708 yards, 7 TD) and is a big reason for the team’s success. He had one of the best games of his career against the Vikings last week, throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 78 yards. He played in just one of their games against the Eagles and was held 169 passing yards but managed two touchdowns (1 pass, 1 rush). While his numbers don’t overwhelm you, his ability to avoid turnovers has been vital to this team’s success.

The Giants’ top pass-catchers include Darius Slayton (724 yards, 2 TD), Richie James (569 yards, 4 TD), and Isaiah Hodgins (392 yards, 4 TD). All three missed their week 18 matchup with the Eagles to get some additional rest for the playoffs. The Eagles kept Slayton in check in their earlier game, but James and Hodgins found the end zone. Slayton and Hodgins were fantastic last week against the Vikings, with Hodgins leading the team with 105 yards and a touchdown. He is listed as questionable for this weekend as he deals with lingering injuries, but we expect him to play.

New York’s ground game is led by Saquon Barkley, who leads the team with 1,312 yards and ten touchdowns. He’s also been active in the passing game, with another 338 yards through the air. The back had a great game against the Vikings last week, averaging 5.9 YPC and combining for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Barkley had six touchdowns in his previous seven games and averaged at least 4.8 YPC in his last four. As good as he’s been, the Eagles shut him down in his lone game against him, limiting the veteran to 48 combined yards without a touchdown.

The Giants’ defense ranks towards the bottom of the NFL, allowing 358.2 yards and 21.8 points per game. While their secondary has been average, their run defense ranks 27th in the NFL (144.2 YPG). The line is anchored by Dexter Lawrence, who leads the team in sacks (7.5) and TFLs (7). He was a big part of the Giants’ win last week, but was mostly a non-factor against the Eagles this season. They may be without their second-best pass rusher in Azeez Ojulari (5.5 sacks, 3 TFL). He had his 5.5 sacks in just six games this season but picked up a quad injury last week and is awaiting further testing. Their secondary has managed just six interceptions this season despite the play of safety Julian Love (2 INT, 5 PD, 6 TFLs, 124 tackles), who leads the team in interceptions (2) and tackles (124) to go with six TFLs and five pass deflections. We’ll be keeping an eye on cornerback Fabian Moreau this week as he leads the team in pass deflections (10) but is listed as questionable for Saturday.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles’ offense was among the best in the league, averaging 389.1 yards and 28.1 points per game during the regular season. They’ve been led by Jalen Hurts, who has thrown for 3,701 yards (10th in NFL) and 22 touchdowns. He’s also been incredible when using his legs, going for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. In fact, he’s had seven rushing touchdowns over his last seven games. The quarterback played well against the Giants in their first matchup but struggled against them when he returned from injury last week. It’s also worth noting that Hurts was sacked seven times between the two games.

The Eagles feature one of the most talented receiving corps thanks to the play of AJ Brown (1,496 yards, 11 TD) and Devonta Smith (1,196 yards, 7 TD). Both have had success against the Giants this season, combining for three touchdowns in the two games. Brown was particularly electric and averaging 20.6 YPC against New York this season. The two receivers are joined by a talented tight end in Dallas Goedert, who has 702 yards and three touchdowns in just 12 games.

The Philly backfield is led by Miles Sanders, who has 1,269 yards and eleven touchdowns on the ground this season. While he was quiet in their final game against the Giants two weeks ago, he shredded their poor run defense in December with 144 yards and two touchdowns. We’re concerned about that last game against the Giants, as it was his second time averaging less than 3.2 YPC over their previous three games. Luckily they have plenty of depth at the position with Boston Scott (217 yards, 3 TD) and Kenneth Gainwell (240 yards, 4 TD). Both backs played against the Giants two weeks ago and were far more effective than Sanders.

The Philadelphia defense has been among the best in the league, allowing 301.5 yards (2nd in NFL) and 20.8 points per game. Much of their success has come from their pass rush, which leads the league with 70 sacks (15 more than the 2nd place team). They have four players with double-digit sacks in Haason Reddick (16 sacks, 11 TFLs), Javon Hargrave (11 sacks, 10 TFLs), Brandon Graham (11 sacks, 10 TFLs), and Josh Sweat (11 sacks, 15 TFLs). Those four alone accounted for five sacks in the two games against the Giants. Their secondary has been led by CJ Gardner-Johnson, who leads the NFL in interceptions (6) to go with 8 pass deflections. He is joined by James Bradberry (17 PD, 3 INT, 1 TD) and Darius Slay (14 PD, 3 INT). This unit has plenty of depth, making it a much tougher test for the Giants’ passing attack this week.

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