Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl - Florida vs. Oregon State (12/17/2022) - Taking Vegas



Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl – Florida vs. Oregon State (12/17/2022)

By TakingVegas Staff Writer
December 16, 2022

Florida vs. Oregon State (12/17 @ 2:30 p.m. EST.)

Line: Oregon State -10
Total: 52.5

Florida vs Oregon State Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Florida Gators (6-6) and No. 14 Oregon State Beavers (9-3) are squaring off in the Las Vegas Bowl Saturday at 2:30 p.m. ET. The Beavers are 10-point favorites. The over/under is set at 52.5 points.

The Gators and Beavers have never played against one another despite their long histories. This is Florida’s 48th bowl game and Oregon State’s 17th bowl game.

Florida Overview

Gators fans have felt quite an array of emotions this season. They began the season unranked, but they shot up to No. 12 in the AP Poll after a stunning win over then No. 7 Utah. The stage was set for Florida to crash the College Football Playoff behind Heisman-winning quarterback Anthony Richardson. However, reality set in over the next three weeks as the Gators lost to Kentucky at home and Tennessee in Knoxville on opposite ends of a near-loss against a USF team that ended with one win. Now 2-2, Florida beat FCS Eastern Washington and Missouri before dropping games against LSU and Georgia. Florida became bowl-eligible after wins over Texas A&M and South Carolina, but they ended the regular season with consecutive losses against Vanderbilt and Florida State. Anthony Richardson did not win the Heisman.

Richardson had some fun moments this season, and he might be a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, but he still has work to do. He finished with a healthy 26 total touchdowns to only nine interceptions, but he completed just 53.8% of his passes. He was a large part of the Gators’ rushing attack, ending with 654 yards. Montrell Johnson led the way with 144 carries, 827 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Trevor Etienne tacked on 705 yards and six touchdowns. The receiving game was largely a combined effort. Xzavier Henderson led the team with 38 catches. Ricky Pearsall and Justin Shorter surpassed 500 yards. Pearsall hauled in five touchdowns to lead the team. All told, the Gators finished 43rd in scoring offense. They had one of the better rush offenses in the country, racking up 5.8 yards per carry.

Defensively, Florida was bordering on disaster. They allowed 28.8 points per game, ranking 91st in the country. They had several meltdowns including allowing 45 points to LSU and Florida State and 42 points to Georgia. Even in some of their wins, Florida allowed 26 points to Utah, 28 points to USF, and 24 points to Texas A&M. No Gator finished with more than five sacks, and the team intercepted just nine passes in 12 games. Amari Burney was the most impactful player, racking up 71 tackles, 9.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, two interceptions, and two forced fumbles. Florida had a moderate pass defense, but they were often gashed on the ground, allowing 4.5 yards per rush. They were able to force and recover 15 fumbles, aiding a healthy turnover differential.

On the season, Florida is 7-5 ATS. They have covered in four of the last five weeks including their losses to Georgia and Florida State. As multi-score underdogs, Florida was 0-3 in the games, but they covered in all three games. Florida is 5-0 ATS in games they were underdogs. The over is 7-5 in Florida games. The over has hit in four of the last six games including an impressive 83 points in the Florida-Florida State game.

Oregon State Overview

Oregon State opened up with a 3-0 non-conference start before dropping games to USC and Utah. However, they quickly hit their stride and knocked off Stanford, Washington State, and Colorado. After a slip-up against Washington, Oregon State won out with dominating wins over California and Arizona State before beating No. 10 Oregon in the Civil War. Now No. 17 in the AP poll, Oregon State has its highest ranking since 2022, and they were ranked at all for the first time since 2013. Oregon State is looking for its first 10-win season since 2006. With a win, Oregon State would have its highest winning percentage since an 11-1 season in 2000.

Oregon State has had one of the better offenses in college football, scoring 32.4 points per game, good for 37th in the country. A 68-point outburst against FCS Montana State helps, but they also scored 34 or more in wins over Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado, California, and Oregon. They have scored 107 points in their three-game win streak. The Beavers have not had the most potent passing attack, splitting time between Ben Gulbranson and Chance Nolan. Nolan began the season, starting the first five games off this season. After a neck injury, Gulbranson replaced Nolan and has yet to look back. Gulbranson has 12 total touchdowns and five interceptions. The Beavers have relied on the rushing attack primarily through Damien Martinez. Martinez has 970 yards and seven touchdowns. Deshaun Fenwick and Jamious Griffin have been solid change-of-pace players. Fenwick has seven touchdowns to match Martinez, and Griffin is second on the team in yards. Tre’Shaun Harrison is by far Oregon State’s top receiving option, leading the team with 52 catches for 604 yards and four touchdowns.

The Beavers have had a solid defense, allowing 21.4 points per game. They have a stout pass defense, allowing a 57.9% completion rate and picking off one pass per game. The rush defense was not quite as sturdy, but the Beavers were often in good game scripts. On an individual level, the Beavers did not have a major standout in the front seven, but 12 players pitched in with at least 0.5 sacks. James Rawls only notched 1.5 sacks, but he had 9.0 tackles for loss. Omar Speights recorded 6.0 tackles for loss despite not recording a sack. On the back end, Ryan Cooper, Alex Austin, and Rejzohn Wright each had at least nine pass deflections. Jaydon Grant, Kitan Oladapo, and Kyrei Fisher pitched in with a combined 17.

Oregon State is 10-2 ATS, only failing to cover in their loss to Utah and their small win over Stanford. They have covered in the last six games including a 5-0 record as favorites. As double-digit favorites, Oregon State blew out Montana State (-16.5), Colorado (-23), and California (-11.5). The over is 7-5 in Oregon State games. In the non-conference, the over hit in two of three games.

Free Pick: Florida +10

Florida has their fair share of strange performances this season, but they have lost by 11 or more just once – against the best team in college football. In their other five losses, Florida has lost by 10, 5, 10, 7, and 7 again. Therefore, Florida +10 is a reasonable bet. Oregon State has been excellent at covering the spread, but Florida is one of the stronger teams that the Beavers have played. Asking Oregon State to win by multiple scores could be a tough ask.