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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: LSU vs. Texas A&M (11/26/2022)

By Michael Savio
November 23, 2022
Photo by: Hilary Scheinuk - NOLA.com

#5 LSU Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies (11/26 @ 7:00 PM EST )

Spread: LSU -10
Money Line: LSU -385 / Texas A&M +300
Total: 47.5

Overview and Betting Info

The #5 LSU Tigers (9-2) will head to College Station Saturday to take on the Texas A&M Aggies (. The Tigers lead the overall series 35-22-3 and have won nine of the last eleven matchups. LSU has clinched the SEC West and is set to play Georgia in the SEC championship, while Aggie’s disappointing season has left them ineligible for a bowl game.

LSU is 7-4 against the spread and has covered three of their last five games. They have covered the road just once. They have gone over the total in three of their previous five games.

A&M is 3-7-1 versus the spread and has covered their last five games just once. They have failed to protect in their previous three games. The Aggies have gone over the total three times, all of which came over their last five games.

LSU Tigers

The SEC West Champions surpassed expectations this year thanks to an offense averaging 437 yards per game. They are led by Arizona State transfer quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has been fantastic. He’s a dual threat that leads the team in passing (2,377 yards, 15 TD, 69% comp) and rushing (740 yards, 11 TDs). Daniels success is partly due to a deep stable of receivers. Malik Nabers leads the team with 51 receptions for 657 yards and a touchdown, but they have successfully spread the ball all year. Keep an eye on Kayshon Boutte, who is becoming more involved in the offense with six or more catches in three of their last five games. Expect an aggressive pass attack Saturday as they face a terrible A&M secondary that fails to generate turnovers.

Josh Williams (481 yards, 6 TD) has been the Tiger’s top running back, but he missed last week with an injury and could miss Saturday. He had been hot before he went out, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and scoring three touchdowns over his last three games. If he can’t go, expect to see Noah Cain (292 yards, 7 TD) and John Emory Jr. (266 yards, 2 TDs) take over and lead the attack. The A&M line has been disappointing this season, so the Tigers may play it safe and hold Williams out before the championship game. Either way, expect Daniels and these backs to have a good day on the ground.

The LSU defense has played well this season, ranking fifth among SEC teams with 340 yards per game. They are allowing just 20 points per game (4th in SEC), and they’ve held teams to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Their linebacker corps is a big reason why, led by Harold Perkins (7.5 sacks) and Micah Baskerville (65 tackles, one sack, 6 PD, 1 Int, 1 TD). What’s most impressive is that they’ve only played two of the top seven bottom offenses, meaning their success has come against the best attacks in the SEC. The LSU defense has dominated the two bottom offenses they played (Mississippi State and Auburn), holding both to 17 or fewer points.

Texas A&M Aggies 

The Aggies ended a six-game losing streak last week with a win over UMass. They’ve been a huge disappointment, especially on offense, where they are 13th in the SEC with 355 yards per game. They’ve started three different quarterbacks, but Conner Weigman appears to have taken over the starting role. He has 741 yards and six touchdowns in four games but is completing just 53% of his passes. He has relied heavily on receiver Evan Stewart, who leads the team with 607 yards and two touchdowns and had six or more receptions in his last four games. Unfortunately, Stewart is dealing with an injury and may miss Saturday again. If he can’t go, the Aggies will rely on the talented Moose Muhammad III, who has 516 yards and three touchdowns.

Running back Devon Achane has been the bright spot on this Aggies offense, with 887 yards and six touchdowns. He’s been playing great over their last three games, with 458 yards and five combined touchdowns. He was injured against Florida and has missed the last two games, but he will have a shot to go on Saturday. Amari Daniels has performed well in his absence, who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry over their last two games. The duo will be this offense’s best chance at keeping up with LSU on Saturday.

The Aggies’ defense has allowed 363 yards per game, thanks to giving up a conference-worst 210 rush yards. They did better the last two weeks, but they were against UMass and a struggling Auburn offense. The A&M secondary has a leader with Jardin Gilbert, who has 55 tackles with two interceptions and five pass deflections. Even with Gilbert, the team has struggled to make big plays. They are last in the SEC with four interceptions and are tied for ninth with just 19 sacks. They need to improve to contain Jayden Daniels and this explosive LSU offense.

Free Pick: LSU -10

This is a lot of points to give up on the road, but we don’t think the Aggies will be able to hang. The Tigers outmatch them at every turn and have performed well against offenses similar to what the Aggies currently have. The key to beating LSU is getting to Jayden Daniels, and the Aggies have struggled to get sacks. Even if Achane plays, Aggie’s offense doesn’t have the talent to move the ball consistently against LSU. The Tigers got a wake-up call against Arkansas, and they now see a window to the College Football Playoff so expect them to come out focused.

We’re giving up the points to take LSU in a big Saturday night win.

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