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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State (10/29/2022)

By Ace Margolis
October 27, 2022
Photo by: Unknown (Contact us for credit)

Oklahoma St. vs Kansas St. (10/29/22 – 3:30 pm EDT)

Line: Kansas St. -1.5
O/U: 56.5

Oklahoma St. vs Kansas St. Overview

One of the biggest matches of the year in the Big 12 will be played this Saturday afternoon in Manhattan, Kansas as the Oklahoma St. Cowboys are on the road to play the Kansas St. Wildcats. The Cowboys are coming off a big victory at home over the Texas Longhorns 41-34 while the Wildcats came up short against TCU on the road, 38-28.

Oklahoma St. Analysis

What a season it’s been for Oklahoma St. They had gone undefeated through six games before the TCU Horned Frogs spoiled their fun in Week 8 only to pull off a thrilling come-from-behind victory in Week 9. With three ranked opponents behind them, the Cowboys have earned their #9 ranking as they’re 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big 12, which puts them in second place in the conference. Over seven games on the year thus far, Oklahoma St. is 5-2 against the spread and an outstanding 6-1 versus the over/under.

The Cowboys didn’t play a lot of great teams during their five-game winning streak to open the season except for Baylor, who was ranked 16th at the time they were defeated. Including Baylor, Oklahoma St. has now played three ranked opponents over their last four weeks and this Saturday will make it four over the previous five, making their schedule one of the toughest in the country. Last Saturday’s game against the Texans showed the tenacity of the Cowboys as they were down 14 points in the second quarter and 10 points with only 3 minutes left in the third. They never gave up, battling until the end and winning by a score, easily covering the +6.5.

The Cowboys are 6-1 because they’re well-coached by head coach Mike Gundy and have a stud at quarterback in Spencer Sanders whose 391 yards passing and two touchdowns against Texas propelled Oklahoma St. to the victory. On the season Sanders has 2,030 yards passing to go with 15 TDs and only four interceptions. Sanders is a huge reason why the Cowboys’ offense is ranked fourth nationally with 44.7 points per contest while their 313.3 passing yards per game is 13th overall.

Kansas St. Analysis

Kansas St. has had a better-than-expected season but last week’s hiccup against TCU set them back both in the national rankings and Big 12 standings. In fact, the Wildcats entered that game against the Horned Frogs ranked 17th but after the loss, they’re 22nd and in danger of falling out of the Top 25 if they lose their biggest game of the season so far. On the season, Kansas St. is 5-2, 3-1 in the Big 12 where they’re in third place behind the Cowboy. The Wildcats have gone 4-2-1 against the spread and 3-4 versus the over/under.

Despite dropping five spots in the AP Top 25 this week, Kansas St. is still a formidable opponent with a lot left to play for. They still have five games left on the schedule with their highest-ranked opponent this week in the Cowboys. Next week it won’t get much easier as the Longhorns come to town but the bright side is they’ll get to play both opponents at home in Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Kansas St. had been playing well until the TCU loss, stringing together three wins against conference rivals Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Iowa St.

The Wildcats sport a pair of dangerous weapons in quarterback Aiden Martinez and running back Deuce Vaughn that should not be taken lightly. Martinez is a dual threat that has thrown for 907 yards and 4 TDs in addition to running the ball for 565 yards and nine TDs, which is 45th overall and the most for a QB. Behind him, Vaughn has rushed for 744 yards, good for 16th in the country and his 106.3 yards per game are 13th overall. Kansas St. also has a stud on defense in defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah who is tied for second in the country with six sacks.

Free Pick – Oklahoma St. +1.5

No doubt that Manhattan is a tough place to play with the Wildcats’ home crowd one of the best in the Big 12. Looking deeper at the victories so far for Kansas St., the only ranked opponent they beat was Oklahoma, who was ranked far too high at the sixth spot when the teams met back in September. After Oklahoma St. defeated Texas last week, it’s surprising that the Wildcats are the favorite here, even if they are at home, where the host has gone 4-0 over the last four games of this series. While that is concerning for the Cowboys, they’ve played a far tougher schedule and have a QB in Sanders that could play his way into the Heisman discussion with another good game here. Kansas St. is a tough out but Oklahoma St. is better-coached and with their performance thus far against tough teams, it’s hard not to pick them. We’re going with Oklahoma St. +1.5.

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