Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Patriots vs. Cardinals (12/12/2022) - Taking Vegas

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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Patriots vs. Cardinals (12/12/2022)

By Michael Savio
December 12, 2022
Photo by: Unknown (Contact us for credit)

New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals (12/12 @ 8:15 PM EST)

Spread: Patriots -1
Money Line: Patriots -125 / Cardinals +112
Total: 43.5

Overview and Betting Info

The Patriots will head to Arizona on Monday night to take on the Cardinals in a prime-time matchup. The Pats have won seven of the last eight matchups, though their last three have been decided by three or fewer points. The Cardinal’s playoff hopes are slim, while the Patriots are one game away from the final playoff spot.

New England is 6-5-1 against the spread this season and have covered three of their last five. The Pats have gone over the total five times but have been under in four of their previous five.

Arizona is 6-6 versus the spread and have covered just two of their last five. They have gone over the total six times and have been over or pushed in their previous six games.

New England Patriots

The Patriots come in losers of their last two, but they’ve won five of their previous eight. The offense has disappointed, averaging 336.7 yards (24th in NFL) and 20.8 points per game. They are led by quarterback Mac Jones who has 1,923 passing yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. His accuracy has been better the last four games (0 INT), and he had an impressive performance by going for 382 yards against the Vikings. Jones has complained about the play calling, so expect to see some changes against the Cardinals. With Jakobi Meyers (593 yards, 3 TDs), expect Jones to focus on Nelson Agholor (327 yards, 2 TD) and DeVante Parker (237 yards, 2 TD). It’s not a lot of talent or depth for the passing game, but we expect them to be aggressive on Monday.

Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team with 734 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The back is also the team’s third-leading receiver with 383 yards and one touchdown, so expect him to be involved Monday. The Pats may also be returning Damien Harris, who has 383 yards and 3 touchdowns on the year. He’s been battling a thigh injury but is back to practice and should be good to suit up on Monday. Harris is a talented back that’s a perfect complement to Stevenson and the two form a daunting duo.

The Patriot’s defense is allowing 331.9 yards and 18.8 points per game. A big reason for their success has been their ability to make game-changing plays. They are third in the NFL with 39 sacks and are tied for fourth with 12 interceptions. The unit has been keeping the Patriot’s struggling offense in games, led by the play of Matthew Judon. The edge rusher is second in the NFL with 13 sacks and leads the team with 11 tackles for loss. He’s not alone, as Josh Uche (7 sacks) and Deatruch Wise Jr (6.5 sacks) have also been finding their way into the backfield. The secondary has been led by the play of Jonathan Jones (3 INT, 8 PD, 1 TD), along with Jalen Milles and Devin McCourty (2 INT each). They’ll face a tough test on Monday as they face a Cardinals offense that is finally at full strength.

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals offense averages 355.2 yards and 22 points per game. They are led by Kyler Murray, who has 2,539 yards to go with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The quarterback is back from dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out for most of November. He seems back in form, as he scored a combined three touchdowns in his return last week. After their previous game, Murray was called out as selfish by former teammate Patrick Peterson, so we’ll see how he responds on the field on Monday. We like his chances, as he’ll have both DeAndre Hopkins (574 yards and 3 TDs in 6 games) and Marquise Brown (531 yards and 3 TDs in 7 games) healthy and on the field together. Keep an eye on Greg Dortch, who should be returned from injury and went for over 100 yards in his last game.

James Conner is back from injury and leads the team with 476 yards and four touchdowns. He’s been disappointing when healthy (3.9 YPC), but Monday will mark the second time he’s on the field with Murray, Hopkins, and Brown this season. He’s coming off his first 100-yard game in two years, so don’t be surprised if the run game finally comes alive. Conner should handle the full load, as Keaontay Ingram is the only other back on the roster that has a carry. The Cardinal’s defense is allowing 370.8 yards and 26.8 points per game. They’ve looked great but have given up big drives in critical situations. They’ve failed to generate big plays, with just 23 sacks and seven interceptions (both bottom 10 in NFL). The defense have been led by a bounce-back year from JJ Watt, who leads the team with 6.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss. He is joined by Zach Allen, who has 4.5 sacks, seven pass deflections, and team-high nine tackles for loss. The Cardinals also have some talent in the secondary, highlighted by Marco Wilson (8 PD,1 INT, 1 TD), Budda Baker (team-high 90 tackles, 1 INT), and Jalen Thompson (7 PD, 1 INT, 66 tackles).

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