Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Raiders vs. Rams (12/8/2022) - Taking Vegas

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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Raiders vs. Rams (12/8/2022)

By Ryan Potts
December 7, 2022

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams (12/8 @ 8:15 p.m. EST.)

Line: Raiders -6
Total: 44.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) are heading to southern California for a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams (3-9) on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Raiders are 6-point favorites. The over/under is set at 44 points.

Historically, the Raiders have won eight of 14 matchups. However, the Rams have won four of five since division realignment in 2002. They last played in 2018 when the Rams won by 20 points. This will be the first matchup of the teams since the Raiders moved to Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Raiders Overview

After a slow start, the Raiders have won three games in a row, and they are on the fringe of AFC playoff contention. They may only be 5-7, but the Raiders have six one-possession losses, so they have been quite competitive this season. They have found a nice groove at a perfect time in their schedule to make a run back to the playoffs. Last season, the Raiders won their last four games to squeeze out a playoff berth.

The Raiders’ newfound success has come from Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has six games with over 100 rushing yards, and the Raiders are 5-1 in those games. When Jacobs finishes under 100 rushing yards, the Raiders are 0-6. Jacobs is on a particularly hot streak now, averaging 160.7 rushing yards per game in his last three games. For the season, Jacobs is on pace for 1,846 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, the Raiders are not one-dimensional. Derek Carr has brushed off a rough start to the season to post quality numbers. In the receiving game, Davante Adams is having a vintage season, racking up 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns. Even the Raiders offensive line has improved throughout the season. All told, the Raiders rank ninth in scoring and eighth in total offense.

Defensively, the Raiders have been largely ineffective. They are 26th in scoring defense and 27th in total defense. They have only forced nine turnovers, second-to-last in the NFL. The unit has been marginally better in recent weeks, holding their last three opponents under 400 yards and forcing three turnovers in the last two games. Maxx Crosby has been dominant all season, improving on an extraordinary 2021 season. However, Chandler Jones woke up from his slumber last week to record 3.0 sacks. Before Week 13, Jones had just 0.5 sacks, so his emergence will be key in the Raiders ending the season on a high note. The secondary has been poor statistically, but Crosby and Jones make their lives easier.

The Raiders are 6-6 ATS this season, winning their last three matches. The Raiders have had a strange streak of alternating three losses and then three wins ATS. If the streak were to continue, the Raiders would not cover this week. The over is 6-5-1 in Raider games, but the under has hit in three of the last five games.

Los Angeles Rams Overview

The reigning Super Bowl champions have had a disastrous campaign. They have had the worst performance ever by a defending champion, and they would be eliminated from the playoff contention if they lose. They have lost their last six games, collapsing from a roster perspective and record perspective.​​ The Rams have been largely undone with injuries. They have been forced to start a bevy of different offensive line arrangements, and they are without Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford.

The Rams’ offense has been nothing short of a catastrophe. They rank 29th in scoring and 31st in total offense. The Rams have scored more than 24 points in a game just once. Similarly, they have gained over 350 yards just once. They have also turned the ball over 19 times, turning it over multiple times in seven different games. John Wolford is likely to get the start against Las Vegas, and he has been quite poor. He has a 64.6 passer rating and more interceptions than touchdowns. Cam Akers is coming off the best game of his season, but he is still averaging 3.3 yards per carry. The receiving corps has become barren without Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The offensive line has been unable to maintain any run of form. In every regard, the offense has been a failure this season.

The Rams have been better defensively, but the offensive ineptitude has taken its toll on the defense. They rank 22nd in points allowed and 14th in yards allowed. They will likely be without their best player Aaron Donald, and even Jalen Ramsey has not quite been his usual self. Bobby Wagner has had a good season, but an off-ball linebacker can only do so much. Leonard Floyd will have to have a big impact in Donald’s absence, but he gets a tougher assignment without Donald. The Rams rank 23rd in yards allowed per pass, and they often get picked on because their rushing defense is top five in yards allowed and yards allowed per carry.

The Rams are 4-7-1 ATS this season. However, they have covered in each of their last two games after beginning the season with a 2-7-1 run. As underdogs, the Rams are 2-3-1 ATS with an 0-6 straight-up record. They did win each of the last two weeks, covering +16.5 in a 16-point loss to Kansas City and +6.5 in a 4-point loss to Seattle. The under is 7-5 in Rams games, but the over has hit in three out of five games. The Rams got into such dire straits that two of their games featured a total below 40.

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