Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Rams vs. Packers (12/19/2022) - Taking Vegas



Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Rams vs. Packers (12/19/2022)

By TakingVegas Staff Writer
December 19, 2022
Photo by: Photo by Stacy Revere - Getty Images

Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers (12/19 @ 8:15 PM EST)

Spread: Packers -7
Money Line: Rams +250 / Packers -310
Total: 39.5

Overview and Betting Info

The Los Angeles Rams (4-9) are heading to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (5-8) Monday night. The Packers lead the overall series 48-47-2 and have won eight of the last ten meetings. The loser of this game will be eliminated from the NFC playoff race.

The Rams are 4-7-2 against the spread this season and have covered their last three games. They’ve gone over the total five times, including in three of their previous five games.

The Packers are 5-8 versus the spread and have covered just two of their last five games. They have gone over seven times this season, including in each of their previous four games.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams head to Lambeau after breaking a six-game losing streak against the Raiders last week. Their offense averages a disappointing 308.1 yards (31st) and 16.8 points (28th) per game. With Matthew Stafford out, the Rams will again turn to Baker Mayfield at quarterback. In his first week with the Rams, Mayfield threw for 230 yards and a touchdown. While he didn’t impress in the stat sheet, he played well with a brand-new playbook and helped orchestrate the game-winning drive. What’s more impressive is that he did it without the Rams’ top receivers on the field. With Cupp likely done for the season, Ben Skowronek has emerged as the top receiver. He and Baker worked well together last week as he went for 89 yards on seven catches. Tight end Tyler Higbee has been quiet the last two games (25 combined yards), but don’t be surprised to see him get more looks with another week of practice with Baker under his belt.

After being left out of the offense to begin the year, Cam Akers has reemerged to lead the team with 376 yards and four touchdowns. While he doesn’t see many carries, the back has three touchdowns in his last two games. Keep an eye on rookie Kyren Williams to get some carries as well, as a soft Packers run defense should provide plenty of opportunities. The Rams’ run attack ranks 29th in the NFL, but they’ll be called upon to step up Monday as the temperatures are expected to be hovering in the single digits.  

The Rams’ defense allows 360 yards and 20.2 points per game. Their biggest strength is working against the run where they are top five in the NFL. Bobby Wagner is having a fantastic year, with a team-high 111 tackles and five sacks. His play has been critical as Aaron Donald’s season may be over. Wagner is joined by Leonard Floyd (5 sacks), and both should be able to find their way into the backfield against a bad Packers offensive line. In the secondary, Jalen Ramsey is having another great season leading the team in pass deflections (11) to go along with an interception. He and safety Nick Scott (2 INT) will play a crucial role Monday night as they attempt to slow a Rodgers-Watson duo that seems to get better every week.

Green Bay Packers

The offense is averaging 360 yards and 20.2 points per game. Aaron Rodgers leads the offense with 2,864 yards and 22 touchdowns as he struggles with an injured thumb. He’s failed to throw for over 200 yards in their last two games, but the offense still looked solid. A big reason for their turnaround is the emergence of rookie Christian Watson. After a rocky start to his career, the speedster now has 313 yards and seven touchdowns over his last four games. His play helped open the field for Allen Lazard, who leads the team with 620 yards and five touchdowns.

The Packers have an elite run attack in league with the duo of Aaron Jones (847 yards, 2 TD) and AJ Dillon (624 yards, 3 TD). Jones is an electric runner (5.2 YPC) and receiver, with another 328 yards and four touchdowns through the air. Dillon is more of a power back, but he has surprise speed that makes him incredibly tough to stop. One trend we’re watching is the carries between the two. Dillon is getting more carries and has responded by scoring two touchdowns and averaging 6.03 yards per carry over their last two games. Jones has been hampered by injury, but if both are healthy, we still expect the split between the two to be even.

The Packer’s defense is allowing 358.3 yards and 23.2 points per game. Their pass defense is fifth in the NFL (192.9 YPG), but the run defense is among the league’s worst. They’ve been decimated by injuries, but many players have stepped up for this final run. Preston Smith leads the team in sacks with 5.5 to go along with 7 tackles for loss. He and Kenny Clark (3 sacks) have been solid with the Packers’ top pass rushers out, and we expect them to have more success on Monday night. In the secondary, the Packers are led by Jaire Alexander, who leads the team in deflections (12) and interceptions (4). He joined Rasul Douglas (2 Int) to form a talented cornerback duo. Keep an eye on Rudy Ford (2 INT), who has been incredible in the second half of the season. We expect the unit to have success against a banged-up Rams defense.

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