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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: South Florida vs. Tulsa (11/18/2022)

By Ace Margolis
November 18, 2022

South Florida vs Tulsa (11/18/22 – 9:00 pm EDT)

Line: Tulsa -13
O/U: 58

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The American Athletic Conference is having a busy week already as teams are battling it out for bowl eligibility this time with the South Florida Bulls heading into Oklahoma to take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The Bulls are coming off a 41-24 loss to SMU while the Golden Hurricane lost to Memphis 26-10.

South Florida Analysis

There are many teams this season in college football that can be called the worst but South Florida actually has a great case for being the worst team in the nation. For starters, they’re 1-8 overall and winless in the division where they’re dead last at 0-6. All of this and they’re currently riding an eight-game losing streak into Friday night’s contest. The Bulls have gone 3-7 against the spread and 7-3 versus the over/under.

Where do you start with a team that is 1-8 on the year? The one highlight of the season so far for South Florida, if you would even call it that, was a 42-20 win over the Howard Bison. Howard is an FCS football team so, technically, the Bulls are winless this season because they haven’t beaten any FBS teams. In all fairness, South Florida has one bright spot this season when they played 25th-ranked Cincinnati and ended up losing by only four points, 28-24. Otherwise, the Bulls have gotten beaten handily, especially as of late where they’ve lost by an average of 25.8 points over their last four games.

Keep in mind that there are 131 FBS teams in college football, and sadly the Bulls rank close to the bottom in a lot of defensive categories. South Florida’s defensive is giving up a staggering 508.5 yards per contest, which is worst in college football while they’re allowing 40 points per game, putting them at 129th overall. At least their offense is better as they have a solid rushing attack that averages 183.2 yards a game (41st overall) led by running back Brian Battie who has 873 yards and six TDs on the season.

Tulsa Analysis

We’re obviously being hard on South Florida but Tulsa hasn’t fared that much better at 3-7 and only one win in the AAC to put them at 1-5, which is ninth in the conference. Making matters worse, the Golden Hurricane have lost three consecutive games and six out of their last seven, five of which were conference opponents. Tulsa hasn’t done well against the spread, either, going 2-7-1 while they’re 5-5 versus the over/under.

The season started out okay for the Golden Hurricane as they would win two of their first three games before an early three-game losing streak put them behind the eight ball at the midway point of the season. Now, with only two games remaining and only three wins, Tulsa has no chance of getting bowl eligibility. That being said, despite the seven losses, the Golden Hurricane played a tough schedule with games against Ole Miss, Cincinnati, and Tulane already.

Tulsa’s defense is ranked low in several categories including rushing yards, giving up 212.3 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 123rd overall while their four takeaways is 121st in the nation. Not all is lost for the Golden Hurrican defense, however, as they’re only allowing 185 yards through the air to opposing quarterbacks, good for 19th overall. On the other side of the ball, QB Davis Brin helms a passing attack averaging 266 yards per game, which is 34th in college football.

Free Pick – Over 58

It’s hard to choose between these two teams in terms of the spread but if you have to, it’s really hard to convince anyone to go with South Florida. On the opposite side, however, it’s hard selling anyone on Tulsa and the fact that they can’t take the ball away and give up more than 200 yards per game on offense which could be a problem considering South Florida’s strong ground game. On that note, the Bulls are awful on the defense with the exception of a decent secondary that can keep opposing QBs at bay. They won’t do that on Friday night nor will the Golden Hurricane defense do much to stop the Bulls’ run game. With both defenses playing so poorly, we’re taking Over 58.

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