Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Super Bowl LVII - Chiefs vs. Eagles (2/12/2023) - Taking Vegas

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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Super Bowl LVII – Chiefs vs. Eagles (2/12/2023)

By TakingVegas Staff Writer
February 9, 2023
Photo by: ESPN.com

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (2/12 @ 6:30 PM EST)

Spread: Eagles -1.5
Money Line: Chiefs +100 / Eagles -120
Total: 51

Overview and Betting Info

The Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) will take on the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) in Arizona to decide this season’s Super Bowl Champion. These teams were both the top seeds in their conference, with the Eagles winning the NFC East and the Chiefs winning the AFC West. These teams did not meet in the regular season.

The Chiefs are 7-11-1 against the spread this season but have covered just three of their last ten games. They’ve gone over the total eight times, six of which came on the road.

The Eagles are 10-9 versus the spread and have covered five of their last ten games. They’ve gone over the total 10 times but have been under in five of their last six.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offense has been dominant all season, leading the NFL in yards (413.6 YPG), passing yards (297.8 YPG), and scoring (29.2 PPG). They are led again by Patrick Mahomes (5,250 yards, 41 TD), who leads the NFL in both yards and touchdowns. He picked up an ankle injury during their first playoff game against the Jags but bounced back to throw for 326 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals. His ankle may be the most crucial aspect of the Super Bowl as he faces the top pass rush in the NFL. Mahomes has just one interception in his last six games.

Mahomes’s success can be partly attributed to tight end Travis Kelce (1,338 yards, 12 TD), who was second in the NFL in touchdowns, third in receptions, and eighth in yards. He’s continued to be unstoppable in the postseason, with 21 catches for 176 yards and three touchdowns in their two games. That broke a six-game draught where Kelce failed to score a touchdown. He is joined by a pair of fast receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster (933 yards, 3 TD) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (687 yards, 2 TD). MVS has been great in the postseason, catching the second most passes (7) for 122 yards and two touchdowns.

Rookie Isiah Pacheco leads the Kansas City backfield (830 yards, 5 TD) and is averaging an impressive 5.5 YPC during the playoffs. The seventh-round pick was fantastic in both games, scoring 95 rushing yards against the Jags and 85 combined yards against the Bengals. Pacheco is joined by fellow back Jerick McKinnon (291 yards, 1 TD). He’s more of a receiving back, with 512 yards and nine touchdowns through the air this season. He’s been limited on the ground in the postseason but expect to see him targeted more this weekend.

The Chiefs’ defense has been decent this year, ranking eleventh in the NFL in yards allowed (328.2 YPG) and eighth in rushing yards (107.2 YPG). They don’t take the ball away often, with a turnover differential of -3 (23rd in NFL). They’ve turned it up another level in the playoffs, with seven sacks, three interceptions, and one fumble recovery in their two games. They are led up front by Chris Jones (15.5 sacks, 17 TFL), who is top five in sacks and TFLs. The big man has two sacks and three TFLs in the postseason. He’s joined by Frank Clark (5 sacks, 8 TFL) and George Karlaftis (6 sacks, 8 TFL, 7 PD). Both have been effective in the playoffs, with Clark leading the team with 2.5 sacks and three TFLs. Their secondary is led by L’Jarius Sneed (11 PD, 3 INT, 3 FF) and Juan Thornhill (9 PD, 3 INT). Both have been great this season, but Jaylen Watson and Joshua Willims have led in the postseason with a combined five pass deflections and three interceptions. Keep an eye on Nick Bolton (180 tackles. 2 sacks, 9 TFL, 2 INT) as well, as the linebacker was second in the NFL in tackles and has been excellent in coverage.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles enter as the Super Bowl favorite, thanks partly to an offense that is third in yards (413.6 YPG) and scoring (28.1 PPG). They are led by MVP candidate Jalen Hurts. The quarterback is a dual threat with 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns through the air while adding another 760 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. He was dominant all season behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, but an injury caused him to miss some games at the end of the season. The injury seems to be hampering him in the postseason. He has four combined touchdowns in their two games but just 275 passing and 73 rushing yards. He did face an elite Niners defense in the NFC Championship game, but Hurts averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt for 121 yards.

The Eagles feature the NFC’s top receiving duo in AJ Brown (1,496 yards, 11 TD) and Devonta Smith (1,196 yards, 7 TD). Both were top ten in the NFL in receiving yards, with Brown ranking third in touchdowns. Brown was incredible all season but had just 50 yards in their two playoff games. It’s a sharp drop in production for a player averaging 119 yards over their last four games. Smith has had more success in the postseason, with 97 yards and a touchdown. He was outstanding against the Giants but managed just two catches against the Niners. They are joined by tight end Dallas Goedert (702 yards, 3 TD), who leads the team in postseason receptions with five in each game.

The Eagles feature an elite rushing attack led by running back Miles Sanders (1,269 yards, 11 TD). Sanders has been fantastic as the lead back this year and already has 132 yards and two touchdowns in the postseason. While he was contained a bit against the Niners, the back is still averaging 4.7 yards per carry in the playoffs. Sanders is joined by a pair of talented backs in Kenneth Gainwell (240 yards, 4 TD) and Boston Scott (217 yards, 3 TD). Gainwell has been electric, averaging 6.2 yards per carry for 160 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs. Scott is a bruising back with 53 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs. Watch out for him on Sunday, as he’s scored in four of his last five games.

The Eagles’ defense has been fantastic all season, ranking second in yards allowed (301.5 YPG) and eighth in opponent scoring (20.2 PPG). They are led by the top pass defense in the NFL and lead the league in yards allowed (179.8 YPG) and sacks (70), while ranking third in interceptions (17). They held the Giants and Niners to seven points in their two playoff games. They are led up front by the league’s top pass rush, which includes Haason Reddick (16 sacks, 11 TFL, 5 FF), Javon Hargrave (11 sacks, 10 TFL), Brandon Graham (11 sacks, 11 TFL), and Josh Sweat (11 sacks, 15 TFL). Reddick is one of the top linebackers in the NFL and has been dominant in his two playoff games, leading the team with eight tackles, 3.5 sacks, two TFLs, and a forced fumble that he also recovered. The other four have at least one sack and one TFL in their two games. Their secondary is led by a pair of fantastic cornerbacks in James Bradberry (17 PD, 3 INT) and Darius Slay (14 PD, 3 INT, 1 TD), as well as safety CJ Gardner-Johnson (8 PD, 6 INT). Bradberry has been the best of the bunch in the postseason, with two pass deflections and an interception. They have faced two bad passing offenses, so we’ll see how they fare against the top unit in the league.

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