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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Texas Tech vs. TCU (11/5/2022)

By Ryan Potts
November 5, 2022

Texas Tech vs. TCU (11/5 @ 12:00 p.m. EST.)

Line: TCU -8
Total: 69

Texas Tech vs TCU Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-4) are heading to Fort Worth to face the undefeated No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs (8-0) Saturday at noon ET. The Horned Frogs are 8-point favorites. The over/under is set at 69 points.

Since their move to the Big 12, TCU has found some success against Texas Tech, winning six of 10 matchups. This includes a three-game winning streak dating back to 2019. TCU has won the matchup the last two years by a combined 37 points. Texas Tech does have three wins in Fort Worth since 2012, but TCU won the most recent home game in 2020. TCU has scored 33 or more points in each of the last three matchups.

Texas Tech Overview

Texas Tech had a decidedly difficult stretch to open the season. After crushing FCS Murray State, they faced five consecutive ranked teams. They were able to topple No. 25 Houston and No. 22 Texas, but they fell to No. 16 North Carolina State, No. 25 Kansas State, and No. 7 Oklahoma State, all on the road. They secured a 38-point win over West Virginia before being torched by Baylor last week at home. Texas Tech has yet to win outside of Lubbock in 2022.

While Texas Tech has had an effective offense, they have averaged 2.3 turnovers per game, tossing a ludicrous 15 interceptions in eight games. Donovan Smith is having a solid season under center, but he has launched eight interceptions. Texas Tech has had a middling rushing attack with SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks posting nearly identical numbers. Smith has added four touchdowns with his legs to balance out some of his inefficiencies as a passer. The receiving corps features six different players with 230 or more yards and five more with at least 97.

Defensively, the Red Raiders have been underwhelming because the offense has put them in compromised situations. Despite allowing a 56.8% completion rate and under 4.0 yards per carry, Texas Tech ranks 91st in points allowed per game. Tyree Wilson has posted 6.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Krishon Merriweather leads the team with 67 total tackles. Reggie Pearson Jr. has picked off a pair of passes, and the duo of Rayshad Williams and Malik Dunlap have 15 total passes defended.

Texas Tech is 3-2 ATS in their last five games, winning outright as both an underdog and a favorite while tacking on a cover against Oklahoma State. Last week, they lost as favorites against Baylor. The over has hit in four of five games. Either Texas Tech or Tech’s opponent has scored at least 37 points in five straight games.

TCU Overview

TCU began the season unranked, but they fired off wins against Colorado, FCS Tarleton State, and SMU before slaughtering No. 18 Oklahoma. They jumped to No. 17 before winning three consecutive ranked games to move up to No. 8. Last week, the Horned Frogs dispatched West Virginia to move to No. 7 in both the AP poll and the College Football Playoff Rankings. With four unranked opponents left, the Horned Frogs are a serious contender to make the College Football Playoff if they can avoid the tripping hazards.

TCU can score with anyone in the country, They are third in points per game thanks to quarterback Max Duggan. Duggan has been hyper-efficient as a passer, connecting on 67.4% of his throws, but his absurd 26-to-2 total touchdown-to-interception ratio is mind-boggling. Duggan leads the conference in passing yards, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, touchdowns responsible for, and passer efficiency. Duggan is flanked by Kendre Miller who has 851 yards and 11 touchdowns at a 6.4 yards-per-carry clip. Quentin Johnston is one of three pass catchers with at least four touchdowns.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs are more of an average unit. Dee Winters leads the line with 4.5 sacks and 7.0 tackles for loss. Jamoi Hodge, Johnny Hodges, and Mark Perry are tied for the team lead with 47 tackles. Bud Clark and Josh Newton have pulled down a combined five interceptions. They allow 27.2 points per game, good for 75th in FBS. Their opponents have completed passes at a 54.3% clip and have only been able to run for 3.8 yards per carry. TCU has nearly twice as many takeaways as giveaways.

TCU is only 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games. They have been favored in the last four, covering against West Virginia and Kansas State. They pushed against Kansas and were unable to cover -5 against Oklahoma State. As 4.5-point underdogs against Oklahoma, they won by 31. The over is 4-1, clearing 69 or more points in three of four games. In the last five games, the lowest final total was 66 points from the Kansas State game.

Free Pick: Over 69

Both of these teams should have no problem moving the football. If Texas Tech gets into turnover troubles, TCU should capitalize quickly with points. Over 69 seems like a safe bet for an in-state rivalry game with two teams with potent offenses. TCU has had some issues covering larger numbers, so the spread might not be the way to go, but there should be plenty of points scored in Fort Worth.

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