Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Titans vs. Eagles (12/4/2022) - Taking Vegas

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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Titans vs. Eagles (12/4/2022)

By Ryan Potts
December 3, 2022

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles (12/4 @ 1:00 p.m. EST.)

Line: Eagles -4.5
Total: 44

Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Tennessee Titans (7-4) are heading to face the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Eagles are 4.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 44 points.

The teams share a strange past. The Eagles lead the all-time series between the franchises 7-5, but six of Philadelphia’s seven wins came before 2000 when the Titans were known as the Houston Oilers. Since the Titans came to Tennessee, they are 5-1 including a pair of wins in Philadelphia. Last time they squared off, Tennessee pulled out a ballsy overtime win to stun the then-defending Super Bowl champions.

Tennessee Titans Overview

The Titans are a classic example of a well-coached team with a limited talent pool. In their 11 games, eight have been decided by a touchdown or less with the Titans going 5-3 in such games. On one hand, they are a handful of plays from 10-1. On the other hand, they could be 4-7 if a few plays broke the other way. An alarming trend is Tennessee’s 1-4 record against current playoff teams. Their lone win came against the Washington Commanders, but the Commanders have been a much different team since playing Tennessee. The Titans are almost certain to win the AFC South and make the playoffs for the fourth season in a row regardless of what happens Sunday.

The Titans’ offense can be described in two words: Derrick Henry. They rank 26th in scoring and 29th in yards largely by design. Henry has been slightly inefficient considering his career, but he is still romping for 95.3 yards per game. He is among the league leaders in rush attempts, yards, and touchdowns once again. He is also having his best season as a receiver, and he has  even thrown a touchdown. Ryan Tannehill is  having a solid season under center, tossing 10 touchdowns with only one interception. He has a respectable 97.0 passer rating. The Titans have had a banged-up team in general, but the receiving corps  has been relatively healthy. Robert Woods leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

The Titans are a case of “bend, don’t break” on defense. They are 21st in total defense, but they stiffen when it matters. On third downs, no one in the NFL is better. They also rank as the No. 7 scoring defense and red-zone defense. Their only issue is their putrid fourth-down defense, but that is only a 19-play sample size. Without star edge rusher Harold Landry, the Titans have had a surprising amount of success. In his place, Denico Autry has been one of the better edges in the league, and Jeffery Simmons has played at an All-Pro level. Autry leads the team with 7.0 sacks while Simmons has eight tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. The Titans get enough contributions from the entirety of the defensive roster to withstand the many injuries they have faced.

Usually, it is not worth mentioning the punter, but the Titans have the most prolific punter in 2022. Rookie Ryan Stonehouse has blasted 59 punts for a league-leading 3,132 yards. His 53.1 yards per punt leads the NFL. Among primary punters, he is tied for third in net yards per punt. However, his big leg leads to a league-high 61% of punts being returned.

The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Their lone loss came last week against Cincinnati. Before that, they had been impressive as underdogs, knocking off Green Bay outright and only losing by three as 14-point underdogs against Kansas City. In these last five games, the under is 4-1, featuring four games where neither the Titans nor their opponent scored more than 20 points. The only exception in the last five games is Tennessee  scoring 27 against Green Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles Overview

The Eagles have the NFL’s best record, sprinting out to a 10-1 start. They have shown some warts in the last few weeks, but they held on to beat the Colts and Packers in the last two weeks. As good as the Eagles are, they have to keep winning because the Dallas Cowboys are lurking just two games back in the division, and the Minnesota Vikings are a game back for the top seed in the conference. The Eagles are a well-coached and remarkably consistent bunch who rarely beat themselves. They have the third-fewest turnovers in the league, throwing the fewest interceptions in the NFL.

Jalen Hurts has had a breakout season, fueling the Eagles to one of the top offenses in the NFL. They rank third in scoring and fourth in total offense. The offense is built with the rushing attack as a focus, but the Eagles rank fourth in yards per pass. Hurts could get some down-ballot MVP consideration, and he will likely make his first Pro Bowl. He has 17 passing touchdowns, eight rushing touchdowns, and only three interceptions. The rest of the rushing attack operates on a similarly consistent basis. Miles Sanders has eight touchdowns, and he equals Hurts with eight scores. The passing offense was solidified with a potential All-Pro in A.J. Brown and Pro Bowl talents in DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles also have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and they could have multiple All-Pros.

The Eagles have had an effective defense, ranking ninth in points allowed and second in total defense. No team has gained 400 yards against the Eagles, and the three times they allowed 30 points came in dubious circumstances. Against the Lions and Packers, the Eagles led the whole game and allowed some garbage-time production. The Commanders crossed the threshold with a last-second defensive fumble recovery. The Eagles have an elite rotation along the defensive line. While no name in particular is a superstar, they get great production from everyone. They have five players with 4.0 or more sacks with Haason Reddick leading the way. The coverage unit is built in the same mold with Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson posting good seasons.

The Eagles are only 2-3 ATS in their last five games. They covered by 0.5 points last week, and they blasted the Steelers in Week 8 as 11.5-point favorites. They won but did not cover against the Colts (-6.5) and Texans (-14). The over is 4-1 in the last five games, narrowly hitting against the Steelers and Texans.

Free Pick: Titans +4.5

Knowing the Titans, this game will almost certainly come down to the final minutes. They are an excellent teaser leg because they rarely lose by more than a touchdown. Titans +4.5 banks on the well-coached Titans as well the less-than-stellar Eagles in their last three outings. The under could also be enticing as both teams like to control the clock and bleed time off.

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