Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Titans vs. Jaguars (1/7/2023) - Taking Vegas

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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Titans vs. Jaguars (1/7/2023)

By Michael Savio
January 5, 2023
Photo by: Andrew Nelles - USA TODAY NETWORK

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1/7 @ 8:15 PM EST)

Spread: Jaguars -6.5
Money Line: Titans +235 / Jaguars -280
Total: 38.5

Overview and Betting Info

The Tennessee Titans (7-9) will head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars (8-8) on Saturday. The Titans lead the series 34-22 and have won eight of the last ten, but the Jags won their December matchup 36-22. The Jags currently lead the AFC South by one game over the Titans, making Saturday their de facto championship game.

The Titans are 8-7-1 against the spread this season but have only covered one of their previous five games. They have gone over the total just five times and have gone under in their last three games.

The Jags are 8-8 versus the spread and have covered five of their last six games. They have gone over the total in half of their games but have been under in their previous two.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans come into Saturday’s matchup losers of their last six games. Their offense averages 314.5 yards (30th) and 17.6 points (28th) per game. After losing Ryan Tannehill to injury, the Titans will turn to Joshua Dobbs. The quarterback got his first game action of the year in last week’s loss to Dallas, throwing for 232 yards and a touchdown (1 INT). Dobbs, formerly with the Steelers, has only played seven games since being drafted in 2017. He will be joining a receiving group that has been disappointing all season, led by Robert Woods with just 487 yards and two touchdowns. While Woods is considered their top weapon, he has seen a significant drop in production, with just 136 yards over his last five games. His workload is moving over to Treylon Burks (425 yards, 1 TD), who has 272 yards over their previous five games and has plays of 50+ yards in two of them. We also expect tight ends Chigoziem Okonkwo (408 yards, 2 TD) and Austin Hooper (406 yards, 2 TD) to be heavily involved as safety blankets for Dobbs.

The Titans will likely again be without the NFL’s third-leading rusher, Derrick Henry ( 1,429 yards, 13 TD). With Dontrell Hilliard on IR, rookie Hassan Haskins will get the start again Saturday. The running back has seen limited action, with just 90 yards and zero touchdowns on the season. He did have 12 carries last week for 40 yards, an average of 3.3 yards per carry. He will be joined by Jonathan Ward, who went for 26 yards on four carries (6.5 YPC) last week in his first game of the season.

The Titans’ defense is allowing 375.7 yards and 21.2 points per game. While they have the NFL’s second-best run defense (80.5 YPG), their pass defense is last in the league (295.2 YPG). Injuries have plagued them all season, with David Long Jr (86 tackles, 7 TFL, 5 PD, 2 INT) out and Denico Autry (8 sacks, 8 TFL) and Jeffery Simmons (7.5 sacks, 9 TFL) questionable to play. Fortunately, the Titans have depth in Demarcus Walker (7 sacks and 10 TFL) and Rashad Weaver (5.5 sacks, 7 TFL). The struggling secondary is led by safety Kevin Byard (4 INT, 6 PD, 103 tackles) and Roger McCreary (1 INT, 7 PD), but may again be without their other safety in Amani Hooker (1 INT, 3 PD). We’ll be keeping an eye on the Titans’ injury report on defense, as they’ll need most of these key players to keep the game close on Saturday.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars enter Saturday winners of their last four, and a division title a win away. Their offense averages 377.1 yards (7th in NFL) and 24 points per game this season. They’ve been led by a breakout year from Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown for 3,901 yards (9th in NFL) with 24 touchdowns and rushed for 294 yards and five touchdowns. He’s been fantastic but has failed to throw a TD in his last two games. His breakout has been helped by the addition of Christian Kirk, who leads the team with 1,009 yards and seven touchdowns. As good as the Lawrence-Kirk connection has been, the lead wideout has just five catches for 43 yards over their last two games. Kirk joins Zay Jones (802 yards, 2 TD) and Marvin Jones Jr (500 yards, 3 TD) to round out a vastly improved Jaguars receiving corps. We’ll be watching tight end Evan Engram (739 yards, 4 TD) as he went for 162 yards and two touchdowns when they played the Titans in December.

The Jags have the eighth leading rusher in Travis Etienne Jr, who has 1,108 yards and five touchdowns. The young back is having a breakout season and now has 379 combined yards and one touchdown over their last three games. This hot streak came after a disappointing performance in their first matchup against the Titans, going for 32 yards on 17 rushes (1.9 YPC). He will be joined by JaMycal Hasty, who has 189 yards and two touchdowns with limited carries.

The Jacksonville defense is allowing 367.7 yards and 20.9 points per game this season. They’ve been playing great during their win streak, allowing just 15.2 points per game over their last five. They have been led by the play of linebacker Foyesade Oluokun who is the NFL’s leading tackler (171) and leads the team in tackles for loss (11). He joins Josh Allen (6 sacks, 10 TFL) and Arden Key (4.5 sacks) to form a solid pass rush. The Jags’ secondary is led by safeties Andre Cisco (3 INT, 9 PD, 1 TD) and Rayshawn Jenkins (3 INT, 11 PD, 1 TD), who form one of the better safety duos in the league. They join a strong pair of cornerbacks in Tyson Campbell (2 INT, 14 PD) and Darious Williams (15 PD) to round out a Jags defense that is 28th in the NFL with 243.1 yards per game.

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