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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Tulsa vs. Memphis (11/10/2022)

By Ryan Potts
November 10, 2022
Photo by: Joey Johnson - Tulsa World

Tulsa vs. Memphis (11/10 @ 7:30 p.m. EST.)

Line: Memphis -6.5
Total: 61.5

Tulsa vs Memphis Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-6) are heading to Tennessee to face the Memphis Tigers  (4-5) Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Tigers are 6.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 61.5 points.

Since the teams have played regularly (since 2005), Tulsa holds a 6-5 advantage. However, Memphis has won five of seven matchups since 2014. Memphis did lose last year as well as one home game – the 2016 contest. The last two head-to-head matchups have been decided by one score.

Tulsa Overview

Tulsa has been cannon fodder for better teams in the country. They are just 2-6 against FBS teams, beating Northern Illinois and Temple. They allow lots of points, and they have gone 0-2 against ranked teams (Ole Miss and Tulane). After beginning the season 2-1, Tulsa has won just one of their last six contests, dropping four of five in American play. While Tulsa has had some success moving the football, the defense has entirely unraveled.

Through nine games, Tulsa has averaged 30.2 points per game, good for 57th in the country. Quarterback Davis Brin has had a strong season, tossing 17 touchdowns with just seven interceptions. On the ground, Deneric Prince has posted a healthy 5.8 yards per carry while adding three touchdowns and 438 rushing yards. Steven Anderson leads the team with five rushing touchdowns. Among Brin’s receiving targets, Keylon Stokes has a team-leading 57 catches and 964 yards. Stokes, J.C. Santana, and Isaiah Epps have all hauled in five touchdowns.

While reading this paragraph, Tulsa probably allowed another touchdown. They have conceded 33.2 points per game, among the worst 15 teams in the country. They allowed 40 to Wyoming, 53 to Navy, and 45 to SMU as well as 35 to Northern Illinois and Ole Miss. Joseph Anderson is the only player on the team with more than 1.0 sacks. As a team, Tulsa has just five interceptions with two coming from Justin Wright. If there is one counter to watch, Kendarin Ray has forced three fumbles on the season, contributing to the six recovered fumbles Tulsa has defensively.

Tulsa has lost four consecutive games ATS, notably blowing two games as favorites. Since the calendar flipped to October, Tulsa’s only cover was losing to Cincinnati by 10 as 10.5-point underdogs. The under is 3-2 in the last five games. Tulsa has only contributed to half of the total in one of five games, helping the under.

Memphis Overview

As a program, Memphis is on a bit of a downswing. From 2014 to 2020, Memphis was ranked in five of seven seasons, including finishing in the AP poll in 2014, 2017, and 2019. They have not been ranked since 2020, and they currently are below .500. Memphis jumped out to a roaring 4-1 start, knocking off Navy, Arkansas State, North Texas, and Temple consecutively, but a brutal one-point loss to Houston ended the hot streak in its tracks. Despite leading by 13 with under two minutes to play, Memphis allowed 14 points in the final 80 seconds to lose. Eight days later, the Tigers lost in quadruple overtime.

In their four-game skid, Memphis has allowed at least 33 points in each game. Three of their four opponents have been ranked at some point, but back-to-back gut-wrenching losses almost certainly ended the season. Memphis is allowing 31.6 points per game, 110th in FBS. When plays are made, Cormontae Hamilton is usually responsible. He has 4.5 sacks, 6.0 tackles for loss, two batted passes, and a forced fumble. Quindell Johnson has nabbed three interceptions and a fumble recovery.

The offense has more hope. They have scored 33.9 points per game, good for 33rd in FBS. Quarterback Seth Henigan has tossed 16 touchdowns, adding four more on the ground. He also leads the team in rushing attempts. The ground game has been largely ineffective with Henigan and Brandon Thomas both averaging under 4.0 yards per carry. Jevyon Ducker and Asa Martin have been more efficient as ball carriers, but Henigan and Thomas do have 13 combined rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, the Tigers have a varied attack with five different receivers between 24 and 36 catches. Caden Prieskorn leads the team in all three major categories.

In Memphis’ skid, they are 1-3 ATS. Tacking on the win over Temple, they are 2-3 ATS including 1-1 as favorites. The over has hit in four consecutive games with the total not quite adjusting to Memphis’ increasingly porous defense. This week will be Memphis’ first as a favorite since October 7.

TakingVegas.com Pick: Over 61.5

Neither of these teams has been particularly strong at stopping their opponents, so this should be a high-scoring affair that clears Over 61.5. Both teams have good quarterbacks, and neither team is great at extracting turnovers. It should be an end-to-end affair in Memphis with Memphis likely ending their four-game losing streak. Both teams could score 28 or more points, helping inch to the total.

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