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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Utah vs. Oregon (11/19/2022)

By Ryan Potts
November 18, 2022

Utah vs. Oregon (11/19 @ 10:30 p.m. EST.)

Line: Utah -2.5
Total: 61

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Utah vs Oregon Breakdown and Betting Odds

The No. 10 Utah  Utes  (8-2) are heading to Eugene to play the No. 12 Oregon Ducks (8-2) Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET. The Utes are 2.5-point favorites. The over/under is set  at 61 points.

Utah has won three of the last four meetings including two last season. Both of their wins last season came by at least 28 points. Utah and Oregon played in the 2019 and 2021 Pac-12 Championship Games. This is Utah’s first trip to Eugene since 2017.

Utah Overview

Utah has been ranked the whole year, and they have held serve all season for the most part. They had a tough loss in Gainesville to an unranked Florida to open the season, but they won  their next four games before dropping a road game to UCLA. They have won their last four games including a heart-stopping win over then-No. 7 USC. If Utah wins its next two games, the Utes will clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Utah is led by the  11th-ranked offense in the nation. Pouring in nearly 40 points per game, Utah has a balanced attack posting more than 460 yards per game. Quarterback Cameron Rising has 19  touchdowns with only four interceptions. In the rushing attack, he has six touchdowns, second to running back Tavion Thomas. Thomas leads the team with 123 carries and 632 yards (5.1 yards per attempt) with his seven touchdowns. Rising has two major targets in Devaughn Vele and Dalton Kincald who have combined for 94 catches, 1,195 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

The Utes have had a solid defense all season, allowing 20.0 points per  game. While they did  allow 42 points in back-to-back games against UCLA and USC, they have  not allowed more than 20 points in any of their other Pac-12 games. Cole Bishop leads the team with 60 tackles. Van Fillinger has 5.0 sacks to pace the unit. Clark Phillips has been a playmaker on the back end, picking off five passes. Two of his interceptions became touchdowns for the Utes.

In Utah’s last five  games, they are 2-3 ATS. They had an outright loss to UCLA before winning close games over USC and Washington. They have rebounded in their last two games to blast Arizona and Stanford, however. The under is 3-2, hitting in Utah’s last three games.

Oregon Overview

Oregon opened the  season as poorly as one could open the season, losing by 46 points to Georgia. However, they  won their next eight games to become a legitimate threat to the College Football Playoff. They won ranked games against BYU and UCLA to rise from No. 25 to as high as No. 6. Last week,  the Ducks fell at home to No. 24 Washington, virtually ending any hope of making the College Football Playoff.

Oregon has the fourth-ranked offense in the NCAA. They have scored 41 or more in eight of 10 games, only missing the mark in their two losses. Heisman candidate Bo Nix has been practically unstoppable during the season. Through the air, he has 2,774 yards and 24 passing touchdowns with only five  interceptions. On the ground, he has been devastating. He is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, posting 512 yards and 14 touchdowns. He leads the NCAA in completion percentage and leads the conference in yards per attempt, passing efficiency, and rushing touchdowns. His 39 total touchdowns (24 passing, 14 rushing, and one receiving) leads the country.

Mar’Keise Irving and Noah Whittington have been focal points in the rushing attack. Both players are averaging at least 6.0 yards per attempt. Irving has the edge in carries and yards, but Whittington has found the endzone more times. In the passing game, four different receivers have three or more touchdowns. Troy Franklin leads the team with 44 catches, 775 yards, and six touchdowns. Terrance Ferguson has five touchdowns.

Oregon has been a fairly middling defense, ranking 77th in the country. No player has more than 47 tackles, but four different players have at least 43 tackles. Brandon Dorlus has accounted for 8.5 tackles for loss, and D.J. Johnson leads the team with 6.0 sacks. Three Ducks have multiple interceptions with Christian Gonzalez and Trikweze Bridges intercepting three passes. The pass defense has been an issue as the Ducks  have surrendered 289.7 passing yards per game.

In their last five games, Oregon is 4-1 ATS, only losing as 12-point favorites against Washington. They successfully covered double-digit spreads on the road against Arizona, California, and Colorado. They have been favored in their last five games. The under is 3-2, but the final total has been eerily close to the total in two of the three wins.

Free Pick: Utah +2.5

Oregon might have one of the best offenses in college football, but Utah has a competent defense to pair with its big-time offense. Oregon is coming off a deflating home loss as big favorites, so perhaps the flow of momentum is leaning toward Utah +2.5. Utah is a well-coached team who could shock the Ducks and inch that much closer to another Pac-12 Championship Game appearance.

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