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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Prediction: Oregon State vs. Washington (11/4/2022)

By Ryan Potts
November 4, 2022
Photo by: Sean Meagher - The Oregonian

Oregon State vs. Washington (11/4 @ 10:30 p.m. EST.)

Line: Washington -4.5
Total: 54

Oregon State vs Washington Breakdown and Betting Odds

The No. 23 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) are heading to Seattle to face the unranked Washington Huskies (6-2) Friday at 10:30 p.m. ET. Despite being the unranked team in the matchup, the Huskies are 4.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 54 points.

Washington has largely dominated the matchup since 2010, dropping only two matchups (2011 and 2021). Oregon State has not won in Seattle since 2008, a year the Huskies went winless. In the nine-game win streak in the rivalry, Washington won seven of nine games by double-digits including a 42-point win in Corvallis in 2013.

Oregon State Overview

The Beavers have gotten out to a 6-2 start, and they are ranked in both the AP poll (No. 24) and College Football Playoff Rankings (No. 23). They began the season 3-0, knocking off a pair of Mountain West teams as well as FCS Montana State. They suffered back-to-back losses to ranked Pac-12 powerhouses USC and Utah, but they have rebounded to beat Stanford, Washington State, and Colorado. They have been fueled by a blanched approach, ranking in the top 50 in both points scored and points allowed.

Oregon State has rolled with two starting quarterbacks this season. Chance Nolan began the season under center, but he sustained an injury. Ben Gulbranson stepped in and has been marginally better, completing a higher rate of passes and throwing fewer interceptions. Gulbranson will get the start Friday night even with Nolan returning healthy. The Beavers have done much of their work on the ground with the team finding the end zone 21 times via a rush. Jack Collettto leads the team with six rushing touchdowns, and the Beavers have three 300-yard rushers. In the passing game, Tre’Shaun Harrison leads the team with 34 catches and 477 yards.

Defensively, Oregon State has had a sturdy unit. They are allowing a completion rate of just 55.4%, and they have been solid against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry. Kitan Oladapo leads the team with 2.5 sacks, and James Rawls leads with 5.5 tackles for loss. Four different Beavers have multiple picks including Alex Austin’s pick-six. Despite their turnover-heavy offense, the Beavers do have a positive turnover differential because their defense has forced many turnovers.

Oregon State is 3-2 in their last five games ATS. They split the last two games they were underdogs, losing a close game to USC while being blown out by Utah. The over is 3-2 in their last five games.

Washington Overview

Washington began the season unranked, but wins over Kent State, FCS Portland State, and No. 11 Michigan State rocketed the Huskies up to No. 18. They beat Stanford to rise as high as No. 15. However, they lost their next two games, falling out of the ranking. They have rebounded with back-to-back wins, and they have an excellent opportunity to get back in the polls with ranked Oregon State and Oregon coming up on the docket.

Washington has one of the premier scoring offenses in college football, ranking 10th in points per game. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is a fringe Heisman contender who has some of the best stats in the country. He leads the nation in passing yards and ranks third in total yards and seven in passing touchdowns. The Indiana transfer has done a wonderful job of holding onto the football, scoring 24 touchdowns with only four interceptions. Beyond Penix, the Huskies have a solid rushing attack led by Wayne Taulapapa (449 yards) and Cameron Davis (10 rushing touchdowns). In the receiving game, Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan could both be 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown players.

In many ways, the defense has been below average in 2022. They are 78th in scoring defense, a mark undone by allowing 39 points or more in three straight games. However, they have been able to get to the quarterback. Five different players have 3.0 or more sacks including Bralen Trice who leads the team with 6.5. Trice also leads the team with 9.5 tackles for loss. Washington has had some issues forcing turnovers, recovering just two fumbles on the season, but they have a positive turnover differential.

Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last five games. This includes four consecutive losses as a favorite with the Huskies going 2-2 straight up. The over is 3-2 in those games including an impressive over 72 hitting against Arizona.

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