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Free Pick Breakdown, Odds & Predictions: Alabama vs. LSU (11/5/2022)

By Ace Margolis
November 4, 2022
Photo by: Kevin C. Cox -Getty Images

Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers (11/5/22 4:00 pm EDT)

Line: -13.5
O/U: 56.5

Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers Overview

One of the biggest SEC battles every year goes at it again in Week 10 with the Alabama Crimson Tide traveling to Tiger Stadium in Louisiana to take on their most hated rivals the LSU Tigers. The Tide is coming off a 30-6 victory over Mississippi State while LSU beat Ole Miss 45-20.

Crimson Tide Analysis

After their last-minute defeat to the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 8, Alabama came storming back in Week 9 by easily discarding 24th-ranked Mississippi St. by holding them to only 6 points. The win gave the Tide a 7-1 record overall on the season including 4-1 in the SEC West where they’re in a three-way tie for first place with none other than LSU as well as Ole Miss. Although are not in the Top 4 in the FBS Championship standings after their one loss, they’re still ranked sixth overall. Against the spread, the Tide has gone a serviceable 5-3 whereas they haven’t been quite as strong against the over/under at 3-5.

With Alabama only losing one game to second-ranked Tennessee, they still remain one of the best and most formidable teams in the country and can beat you on offense and defense. On the offensive side of the ball, the Tide are lighting up the scoreboard with 43.1 points a contest, fourth best in the nation while their 485.4 yards per game is good for 17th overall. Alabama’s defense does a great job at preventing points as they’re eighth in the nation by giving up only 16.6 points a contest while their 93.1 rushing yards allowed per game ranked 12th overall.

Year after year, head coach Nick Saban’s Tide has a team full of NFL prospects on the roster and this year is no different starting with quarterback Bryce Young who is predicted to be the first overall pick in next year’s draft. He leads Alabama with 1,906 yards passing to go with 18 TDs against only three interceptions and a 66.3% completion percentage. Behind him leading the rushing attack is running back Jahymr Gibbs who has 672 yards and six touchdowns on 98 carries, giving him an average of 6.9 yards per rush.

LSU Analysis

Not even part of the AP’s Preseason Top 25, LSU came into the season with low expectations with new head coach Brian Kelly taking over the job from former coach Ed Ogeron who was let go two years after winning the national championship. After dropping their first game of the 2022 with a 23-24 loss to FSU, the Tigers would go on to win their next four games and six of their next seven to put their record at 6-2 heading into this Saturday’s matchup. Ranked the highest they’ve been all season at #10 overall, LSU has gone 5-3 against the spread and 3-5 versus the over/under.

Despite losing the opening game of their season, the Tigers have battled back with strong showings against ranked opponents such as Ole Miss and Mississippi St. who they beat by a combined 40 points. While LSU doesn’t do any one thing particularly great, they’re solid across the board, ranking in the top 40 of several categories on offense and defense. That being said, LSU is a bit stronger on offense where their 35.1 points a contest ranks 28th overall and their 450.1 yards of offense per game is 30th in the country. Their defense has been relatively stingy, specifically in points allowed where they’re holding opponents to 20.1 points a game, 28th-best overall.

The Tigers’ offense is managed by junior quarterback Jayden Daniels who has really improved over the course of the season. He has turned into one of the most dangerous dual-threat QBs this season with 2,336 all-purpose yards and leading the team in both passing yards with 1,812 and on the ground where he has 524 yards. Oh, and by the way, Daniels also has 12 TDs passing and another nine TDs rushing. Fortunately for Daniels he has a good receiving corps with Malik Nabers leading the team with 455 yards on 36 receptions.

Free Pick – Alabama -13.5

Remember that Nick Saban is still Alabama’s coach and is as intense as they come when the FBS playoff-seeding begins to take shape. With the Tide in sixth place, Saban is going to have his boys prepared for this game even if it’s against a tough LSU squad. The Tigers are a good team but if ‘Bama can contain Daniels, LSU could be in for a long day. On another note, the Tigers’ biggest loss of the season came to Tennessee, who annihilated them 40-13 a few weeks ago. The Tide only lost to the Volunteers by three points and are far closer to being a FBS Final Four team than the Tigers are. Kelly has done a solid job with LSU thus far but Saban is going to make sure his team is ready to kick some serious butt on Saturday to move up in the FBS standings. We like Alabama -13.5.

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