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Free Pick Breakdown Phillies v. Marlins

By Taking Vegas
September 14, 2022
Photo by: Steven M. Falk - Philadelphia Inquirer

MLB WEDNESDAY 9-14-2022

Philadelphia at Miami (6:40 PM EST)

Line: Philadelphia -135
Total: 7.5

The Phillies come into this one on a 4-game winning streak and looking to make it 2 straight vs Miami after their 2-1 victory last night. Miami is just playing out the string as they are coming to the end of another putrid season. Philadelphia is in a tight race in the NL Wildcard standings, and they need to continue to win because they have some tough series with the Braves coming up so this game tonight along with the game tomorrow are very important to win but we do have some concerns about them in this one.

Kyle Gibson hasn’t been good in his last two starts and one of those came against Miami as he went 5 innings and allowed 9 hits and 4 earned runs. He is making his 6th start against Miami this season so the Marlins are familiar with him. In his prior 5 starts vs Miami all total, he has thrown 29 2/3 innings, he’s allowed 31 hits and 12 earned runs. Also, in Gibson’s last 9 starts overall, 7 have seen at least 9 runs with the two teams combined.

Edward Cabrera is opposing him tonight and the Marlins are 4-2 in his last 6 starts. They were underdogs in 5 of those starts and if you take out the start vs the Dodgers where he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed 6 earned runs his numbers have been beyond solid. In the other 5 starts, he has thrown 28 1/3 innings and allowed just 4 earned runs. He also has 1 start vs Philly on his ledger this season where he went 5 2/3 innings, did not allow a run while only allowing 3 hits.

Managers don’t like when their starting pitcher must see a lineup 3 times in a single game. This is now the 6th start of the season for Gibson vs Miami so as we said above, they are very familiar with him, and we expect Miami to score some runs here. 5 of the last 7 games Miami has played have seen at least 9 runs so even though they only scored 1 last night, over the past week they have been playing high scoring games.

We are going to go with the over 7.5 tonight for Free. Our expected runs scored for this game is 9 so we are getting some great value with a run and a half in our favor.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs Phillies / Marlins

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