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Free Pick Breakdown & Prediction: Chiefs vs. Bills (10/16)

By Nicolas Delgado
October 15, 2022
Photo by: Jeffrey Barnes - AP Photo

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10/10) @ 8:15 PM EST

Line: Bills (-2.5)
Total: 53.5

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Breakdown and Betting Odds

Two of the top teams in the AFC are set to face off this Sunday as the Buffalo Bills (4-1) take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1). The Bills are favored by 2.5 points and the over/under is set at 53.5.

Their last five matchups have been pretty even, with the Chiefs winning three out of five including an OT win in last year’s electric AFC Divisional round.

Buffalo Bills Overview

The Bills have been an absolute powerhouse this season, dropping only one game in a nail-biter to the Dolphins. Their last game against the Steelers saw them decimate Pittsburgh in a 38-3 victory that saw the Bills cover the -14 point spread. Josh Allen threw for a whopping 424 yards and 4 touchdowns including a 98 yard receiving touchdown to Gabe Davis, who had 2 touchdowns and 171 yards.

The Bills’ defense has also been dominant this season, allowing only 61 points through five games, which is tied for first in the league. Offseason pickup Von miller has elevated the Bill’s defensive line drastically, which was a big concern after last season’s loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs.

The Bills’ are looking like a tough matchup on both ends of the ball for a Chief’s team that is struggling both offensively and defensively.

Kansas City Chiefs Overview

The Chiefs have also gotten out to a strong start this season, having lost only one game to the Colts by only three points. Their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders saw the Chiefs mount a comeback after getting down as many as 17 points to win the game 29-30. Patrick Mahomes threw an impressive 292 yards and 4 touchdowns, all to his star tight end Travis Kelce.

The Chief’s defense has been a concern this season, especially in the secondary after losing their best safety in the offseason in Tyrann Mathieu. The Chiefs have given up 3 or more touchdowns in all but one of their games this season. These include 2 touchdowns last week to Davante Adams, who broke huge coverages in both receptions for touchdowns of 48 yards or more.

The Chiefs will have to tighten up their defensive ship if they want to stop a Bill’s offense that leads the league in receiving yards.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: Bills -2.5

With the way Buffalo has looked this season, we’re taking the Bills -2.5. With Patrick Mahomes having offensive weapon problems at the receiver position after losing Tyreek Hill in the offseason, as well as the Chiefs’ problems at secondary, we think the Bills have too much talent to keep this one close.

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