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Free Pick Breakdown & Prediction: Georgia State vs. Appalachian State (10/19/2022)

By Ace Margolis
October 19, 2022
Photo by: Unknow (Contact us for credit)

Georgia St. vs Appalachian St. (10/19/2022 – 7:30 pm EST)

Line: Appalachian St. -10.0
Total: Over/Under 60.5

Georgia St. vs Appalachian Overview

Teams from the Sun Belt Conference continue fighting for standings this week with Tuesday night’s tilt between the Georgia State Panthers and Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina. The Panthers are coming off a victory over Georgia Southern while the Mountaineers spent the weekend on a bye preparing for this week’s matchup.

Georgia St. Analysis

Georgia St. started the season poorly with four straight losses to open the year before turning it around by winning their last two games against Army and Georgia So. 31-14 and 41-33, respectively. Despite winning their last two games straight up and against the spread, the Panthers are only 2-4 ATS this season but have split their six games against the over/under (3-3).

Now sitting at 2-4 and fourth place in the Sun Belt East Conference, the Panthers need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive as a trip to a bowl game looks mighty grim at the moment. It’s not over yet, however, as Georgia St. sits at 1-1 in the Sun Belt, three spots behind first-place Old Dominion at 2-0. A win here would push the Panthers’ record to 2-1 in the Sun Belt, which would move them into second place in the division should James Madison and Coastal Carolina lose this weekend.

Georgia St. racked up tons of yards last Saturday in their win against Georgia So. with 521 yards of offense, including 335 yards rushing. In fact, both of the Panthers’ running backs went over the century mark last Saturday with leading rusher Tucker Gregg rushing for 111 yards and two TDs while Jamyest Williams went for 129 yards and a score. Leading the team under center is quarterback Darren Grainger, who doesn’t have eye-popping numbers with 1,214 yards passing over six games but it’s a run-first offense and Grainger contributes to that with 303 yards and two rushing TDs on the season.

Appalachian St. Analysis

Appalachian St. has had a back-and-forth season thus far through six games, going 3-3 yet have only managed to win one of their three conference games, putting them second to last in the Sun Belt East division at 1-2. The loss dropped the Mountaineers to 3-3 overall on the season but 2-4 ATS, however, they have gone 4-2 against the over/under.

While Appalachian St. has picked up a couple of impressive victories on the year such as their Week 2 win over Texas A&M, they failed to capitalize on a big opportunity last Saturday when they played Texas State, a team that was 2-3 and 0-2 in the Sun Belt before beating the Mountaineers. More concerning is that Appalachian St. gave up 395 yards and three TD passes to Texas State, a big reason they lost by their biggest deficit of the year. On that note, the Mountaineers have kept it relatively close in all of their losses, only losing by an average of six points.

Although a lot of guys were banged up against Texas State (another reason they didn’t win), the Mountaineers have a few studs on both sides of the ball. Leading the way on offense is quarterback Chase Brice who has thrown for 1,674 yards this season to go with 18 TDs and only three interceptions. Brice’s 18 TDs are good for sixth-best overall and he’s 37th nationwide in throwing yards. On the other side of the ball, Nick Hampton has been wreaking havoc on offensive lines with five total sacks on the year, 15th in the nation.

Free Pick – Over 60.5

One team is looking for its third in a row while the other wants to get back above .500. Georgia St. has lost its last eight road games against Appalachian St. but they’ve also been playing far better. The Panthers give up a lot of points, 33.33 per contest to be exact, which puts them at 115th in the country out of 131 teams. While the Mountaineers can boast about having the better defense, they still give up 28.83 a game, which is still in the bottom half of the nation’s defenses. Both of these teams also average a combined 65 points per game so rather than pick a side, we like this to be a high-scoring affair. We’re picking over 60.5.

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