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Free Pick Breakdown & Prediction: Navy v. SMU (10/14/22)

By Nicolas Delgado
October 12, 2022
Photo by: Unknow (Contact us for credit)

Navy vs. SMU Mustangs (10/14) @ 7:30 PM EST

Line: SMU Mustangs -12.5
Total: 57.5

Navy vs. SMU Mustangs Breakdown and Betting Odds

Navy (2-3) is set to take on the SMU Mustangs (2-3) in an AAC showdown in Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas this Friday. Kickoff starts at 7:30 PM EST, with Southern Methodist favored by 12.5 points and the over/under set at 57.5.

SMU has won their last two matchups against Navy but was only able to cover the spread in one of these games.

Navy Overview

This is a big game for AAC considerations, as Navy is coming off back to back conference wins. After a rough 1-3 start to the season, Navy bounced back in Week 5 with a dominating 53-21 upset win over Tulsa, covering the +4.5 spread.

Navy only attempted 7 passes and only completed 2, so their game plan was to establish the run. Running back Daba Fofana ran for an impressive 159 yards and 3 touchdowns, with two other backs and a receiver also getting a touchdown. Navy’s offense steamrolled through the weak Tulsa defense, who is allowing the second most points per game in the conference.

Although he didn’t pass much last week, quarterback Tai Lavatai is a big dual threat, and is one of six players on the team to rush for over 100 yards this season. Expect him to be much more active in this game.

Navy’s defense was also impressive, grabbing three interceptions from Tulsa’s quarterbacks. They also only allowed 21 points to a Tulsa offense that is averaging 33 points a game. This is good for Navy, considering SMU’s offense runs through their receiving room.

SMU Mustangs Overview

SMU, coming off of three straight losses, is looking to grab their first division win of the season. Their last matchup, against the red-hot UCF Knights, was a 19-41 blowout loss in which the Mustangs were unable to cover the +3.5 point spread.

Although he did throw for 295 yards, SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai could barely get anything going against the strong UCF defense, which is only allowing 14.6 points per game. Receiver Rashee Rice was a bright spot in this dull game, however, pulling in 12 receptions and running for 122 yards. He is currently third in the nation for receptions and yards. SMU has lacked in the run game thus far, but they’ll need to buff it up, as they averaged only 3.3 yards per carry in their three losses.

SMU’s defense, which is allowing 28.6 points per game could not stop UCF’s receivers, who ran for a combined 324 yards and 2 touchdowns. SMU will want to tighten up their defense, especially if they want to stop Navy’s impressive run game.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: Navy +12.5

SMU heads into this game with three straight losses while Navy walks in with back to back conference wins. All momentum in the conference between these two teams is with Navy, which is why we’re picking Navy +12.5. We’re expecting a tough game of divisional football in which Navy controls the clock and keeps things close. Sign up for Free Picks on the site and call 888-994-6669 for more information on our 5* Best Bet of the Day!

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