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Free Pick Breakdown & Prediction: Oklahoma State vs. TCU (10/15)

By Michael Savio
October 14, 2022
Photo by: Unknow (Contact us for credit)

#8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #13 TCU Horned Frogs (10/15/22 @ 3:30 PM EST)

Line: TCU -4
Total: 68.5

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Breakdown and Betting Odds

There are a lot of big games this Saturday, but none will be as exciting as what will unfold in the Texas desert Saturday night. The eighth-ranked Cowboys are coming to Fort Worth to take on the thirteenth-ranked Horned Frogs in a matchup of two of the country’s most prolific offenses.

Both teams come into this matchup 5-0 on the season with two wins within the Big 12. TCU is 4-0-1 against the spread coming into this game, which is tied for the best in all of FBS. On the other side, OSU is an impressive 9-1-1 against the spread when playing BIG 12 opponents the last two seasons. The Cowboys lead the overall series 17-13-2 and have won seven of the previous eleven matchups.  

Oklahoma State Overview

The Cowboys have lived up to the high expectations set for this season. They join Ohio State as the only team to win each game by double digits this season. This is made more impressive by the fact that the streak includes a win at the then-sixteenth-ranked Baylor team as a 2.5-point underdog. They are currently 3-2 against the spread.

OSU relies heavily on its high-velocity offense to dominate its opponents. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has been a big reason for their success, as he has generated offense with his arm and legs. On the season, he has 1,400 pass yards, 241 rushing, and an impressive 18 combined touchdowns. A deep receiving core helps him with four wide-outs with at least 200 yards and one touchdown on the year. Keep an eye on sophomore Bryson Green who is coming off a career game and has emerged as Sanders’s favorite red zone target.

On defense, the Cowboys have one of the best defensive lines in football. They lead the country in tackles-for-loss and lead the Big 12 with an overage of 3.2 sacks per game. Linebacker Mason Cobb has been dominant and is the team’s leading tackler. Their defensive line has a ton of experience and has dominated the line of scrimmage all year. However, the secondary can be a liability, giving up almost 400 yards through the air to Texas Tech in a close win last week.

TCU Overview

The Horned Frogs come into this game having won massive games against SMU, Oklahoma, and Kansas. All three have high-powered offenses, but they couldn’t keep up with this TCU. While they gave up points on defense, their offense has scored at least 38 points each game.

Quarterback Max Duggan leads their offense. The senior has fourteen passing touchdowns and is completing 73% of his passes for 1300 yards. He’s made even more dangerous as he gets more comfortable running the ball, with a combined 171 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the last two games.

This potent offense has also seen Quentin Johnston emerge as Duggan’s favorite target, going for 206 yards and a touchdown last week against Texas Tech. The passing game is helped by the success of junior running back Kendre Miller, who has put up big yards and at least one touchdown in every game this year. All this talent is why the Frogs are averaging a monster 530 yards per game and converting half of their third-down attempts.

TCU’s defense is fast and opportunistic, but they also allow 461 yards per game. That’s a big number, but it’s put into perspective when you look at the offenses they’ve faced this year (Oklahoma, Kansas, SMU). Linebacker Dee Winters leads the team with 3.5 sacks and a fumble recovery this year. They’ve been able to generate some turnovers, but they won’t be winning the Frogs any games this year.

TakingVegas.com 1* Pick: TCU -4

Daniel Richardson is the starting quarterback for 1-5 Central Michigan. On the season, he’s completing just 55% of his passes and has a QBR of 45.8. When he visited Oklahoma State, he threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns. This trend of giving up career days to quarterbacks has continued all season, including last week against a freshmen backup. The lone exception was against a bad ASU team that was allegedly leaking information to their opponents. TCU’s defense has struggled, but they’ll have the advantage of being at home. If they can use that energy to make just a few big plays, Duggan and the offense should be able to out-score the Cowboys. Give us the Frogs in this one.

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