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Free Pick Breakdown & Prediction: UCLA vs Oregon (10/22/2022)

By Ryan Potts
October 21, 2022
Photo by: Tanmay Shankar/Daily Bruin senior staff

UCLA vs. Oregon (10/22 @ 3:30 p.m. EST.)

Line: Oregon -6.5
Total: 71

UCLA vs Oregon Breakdown and Betting Odds

The undefeated No. 9 UCLA Bruins (6-0) have a matchup against the No. 10 Oregon Ducks (5-1) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Ducks are 6-point favorites over the Bruins. The over/under is set at 71 points.

Oregon has dominated the recent series, losing just once since 2007. This 9-1 stretch includes the 2011 Pac-12 Championship Game and a flawless record at home. UCLA’s last win in Eugene came in 2004. The Bruins are 1-8 in Eugene since 2000. However, Oregon’s last two wins have come by three points each.

UCLA Overview

After beginning the season unranked, UCLA has rattled off six wins in a row to jump to being the top-ranked team in the Pac-12. They have been led by a dominant offense and a good-enough defense, beating a pair of ranked teams along the way. UCLA is 3-0 in Pac-12 play including back-to-back wins over ranked Washington and Utah. They have scored 40 or more points in five of six games.

Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson stirs UCLA’s drink in both the passing attack and rushing attack. Thompson-Robinson has 1,510 passing yards and 15 passing touchdowns with just two interceptions. He is completing 74.8% of his passes, and he is the most efficient passer in the conference. Thompson-Robinson also has tacked on four key rushing touchdowns. Running back Zach Charbonnet leads the team with 615 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Jake Bobo leads the team with 385 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns.

The defense is led by Laitu Latu’s 6.5 sacks and JonJon Vaughn’s pair of interceptions. UCLA is holding teams under 100 rushing yards per game and to just 3.0 yards per carry. UCLA has a +7 turnover differential, forcing 2.2 takeaways per game. Their scoring defense might not set any records, but it is better than average at 22.7 points allowed per game.

UCLA is 3-2 ATS in their last five games. They have covered and won as underdogs in each of the last two games. The over is 4-1 in the last five games, hitting in all three of UCLA’s Pac-12 games.

Oregon Overview

After one of the ugliest opening weeks in recent memory, Oregon has responded with five straight wins. They are 3-0 in the Pac-12, and they had an impressive 21-point demolition of No. 12 BYU before conference play began. After scoring three points in their first game, Oregon has scored 71, 41, 44, 45, and 49 en route to five wins by at least 18 points.

The country’s No. 6 scoring offense is led by Box Nix. The Auburn transfer has 20 total touchdowns including a team-leading eight rushing touchdowns. He has completed 70.4% of his throws for 1,526 yards. Mar’Keise Irving leads the team in rushing with 429 yards, and he has scored twice. Troy Franklin has the team’s most catches with 27 and receiving yards with 429.

While the Ducks have one of the best offenses in football, their defense ranks 88th in scoring. They are sturdy against the run, allowing 3.7 yards per carry, but they have struggled to force many turnovers. No player has more than two interceptions or forced fumbles. D.J. Johnson has 4.0 sacks, and the likes of Noah Sewell have a future in the NFL, however.

In Oregon’s five-game win streak, they are 4-1 ATS. They were favored in all five games, covering double-digit spreads three times. The over is 4-1, but last week it missed by 1.5 points. There have been 71 or more points in four of Oregon’s last five games.

TakingVegas.com Pick: Over 71

Both teams can move the ball easily, and Oregon has one of the worst defenses in the country. Barring a total blowout, Over 71 should be in the cards with the likes of Thompson-Robinson and Nix under center. UCLA’s last two games have cleared 71 points, and Oregon has excelled at scoring nearly 50 points a game while allowing about 30.

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