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Free Pick Breakdown & Prediction: UTSA v. Florida International (10/14)

By Ryan Potts
October 13, 2022
Photo by: Rob Foldy - Getty Images

UTSA vs. Florida International (10/14 @ 8:00 p.m. EST.)


Line: UTSA -33.5
Total: 63.5

UTSA vs Florida International Breakdown and Betting Odds

The UTSA Roadrunners (4-2) are taking a trip to South Beach to face the Florida International Golden Panthers (2-3) on Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Roadrunners are 33.5-point favorites over the Golden Panthers. The over/under is set at 63.5 points.

UTSA and FIU have only played three games since UTSA became an FBS school. UTSA won the first matchup (2014), but FIU won the last two (2017 and 2018). However, the teams have gone in opposite directions since 2018. UTSA is 23-9 since 2020 while FIU is 3-19.

UTSA Overview

UTSA has been must-watch TV so far in 2022. All six of their games have involved at least 59 points including back-to-back one-score games with 72 or more points to open the season. UTSA has the No. 27 scoring offense, posting 37.3 points per game. They have scored 40 points three times. Frank Harris has accounted for 18 total touchdowns. UTSA has four different offensive players with at least 500 scrimmage yards including leading receiver De’Corian Clark.

Defensively, UTSA has been one of the worst teams in the FBS. They have allowed 33 points per game, one of the 20 worst teams in college football. They are allowing 174 rushing yards per game, and they have been ineffective at pooling turnovers. They have allowed at least 24 points in all six of their games, allowing 37 or more in each of the first three weeks.

In their last five games, UTSA is 2-3 ATS, but they are 4-0 as the favorite. Last week, they failed to cover -6.5, squeaking out a 3-point win over Western Kentucky. In their only game with a double-digit spread, UTSA beat FCS Texas Southern by 28, falling short of their 42-point spread. The over is 4-1 in UTSA’s last five games.

Florida International Overview

FIU has had a rough start to the 2022 season. They are 2-3 with three blowout losses and two close wins. In particular, a 73-point throttling by Western Kentucky and a 21-point home loss to UConn look terrible. After scoring 38 points in Week 1, FIU has scuffled to just 45 points in four games including zero against Western Kentucky. The Golden Panthers have a bottom-10 scoring offense and scoring defense. Despite their two wins, they have a -108 point differential.

Grayson James and Lexington Joseph have been the stars of the offense. James has thrown for seven touchdowns and is completing a modest 62% of his passes. Joseph leads the team with 235 rushing yards and has one of the team’s two rushing touchdowns. He is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and he has a pair of receiving touchdowns. FIU is averaging just 325.6 yards per game offensively.

Defensively, FIU has been getting blasted. They are allowing 447 yards per game including a porous run defense. They allow 5.1 yards per carry across 36.8 rush attempts per game. They also have a negative turnover differential.

FIU is 1-4 ATS, salvaging one win as a multi-score underdog against New Mexico State. They have been double-digit underdogs in each of the last four weeks. In the only game FIU was favored in, they escaped with a one-point win over FCS Bryant. The under is 3-2, hitting in three of the last four weeks.

TakingVegas.com Pick: Under 63.5

For as bad as both of these defenses have been in 2022, FIU’s abysmal offense gives plenty of hope for the under. FIU has not scored more than 21 points against an FBS team this season. On the other hand, UTSA has been much better defensively in their last three games, allowing 27.3 points per game as opposed to 38.7 points per game as they did in the first three weeks. Under 63.5 would likely involve FIU scoring under 20 points while UTSA scores around 40. Results similar to FIU’s 41-12 loss to Texas State or UTSA’s 41-20 loss to Texas would preserve the under.

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