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Free Pick Breakdown & Predictions: Temple v. UCF (10/13/22)

By Ryan Potts
October 12, 2022
Photo by: Heather Khalifa - Staff Photographer

Temple vs. UCF (10/13 @ 7:00 PM EST.)

Line: UCF -23
Total: 46

Temple vs UCF Breakdown and Betting Odds

The Temple Owls (2-3) are traveling to Florida to face the UCF Knights (4-1) on Thursday night at 7:00 ET. The Knights are 23-point favorites over the Owls. The over/under is set at 46.

UCF has won seven of nine all-time matchups including each of the last five. All of these wins have been by at least 12 points including 42-point blowouts in the last two games played at Temple. The last time these two teams played in Orlando, UCF won by 25 points.

Temple Owls Overview

Temple is coming off a long week due to a bye week. They last played on October 1, a 21-point loss against Memphis. Temple has alternated wins and losses this season, losing twice by multiple scores. Their wins have been against less than stellar opponents in FCS Lafayette and Massachusetts. Temple has one of the least productive offenses in college football, averaging 15 points per game. It ranks 126th out of 131 teams. Freshman quarterback E.J. Warner has more interceptions than touchdowns so far.

On the bright side, the Temple defense is stingy. They have allowed just 16.8 points per game. Only Duke has scored more than 24 points against the Owls. The defense is led by Layton Jordan’s 4.5 sacks and a pick-six. Jordan Magee, Darian Varner, and Tra Thomas also have at least three sacks. However, Temple has failed to force many turnovers, just taking the ball away three times in four games.

The Owls are 3-2 ATS so far, but both of their losses came on the road. In the three games the Owls have been underdogs, they have gone 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS. This will be their largest spread of the season so far. The under is 4-1, only missing by 3.5 points against Lafayette.

UCF Knights Overview

The Knights are coming in on a three-game win streak. UCF is coming off a Wednesday game, so they get an extra day of rest. UCF has scored 40 points three different times including twice against FBS teams. Isaiah Bowser has cashed in with eight rushing touchdowns while quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has 11 total touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. Leading receiver Javon Baker has 395 yards and two touchdowns.

UCF is scoring 35.6 points per game, good for 30th in FBS. However, their defense has been even more impressive with a 12th-ranked scoring defense (14.6 points per game). Tre’mon Morris-Brash has three sacks and a forced fumble so far. Divaad Wilson has hauled in two interceptions and forced a fumble.

UCF is 3-2 ATS. They have been favored in all five of their games, and their -23 this week will be their largest spread against an FBS team. They covered -44 in their Week 1 win against South Carolina State (FCS), but they did not cover a 21.5-spread against Georgia Tech in their fourth game. The under is 4-1, hitting in each of the last four games.

TakingVegas.com Pick: Under 46

All things considered, 46 is a low number for a UCF game. It will be their lowest total of the season by 10.5 points. Temple has played in several games with a total in the 40s. However, Under 46 should be a solid bet with Temple’s generally inept offense and UCF’s controlling defense. As long as Temple can force UCF into long scoring drives, this game could descend into 35-10 or 31-13 territory, preserving the under.

UCF has a good offense, but both teams have sturdy defenses. In Temple’s five games, no team has scored more than 30 points, and the highest total was just 44. UCF’s opponent has yet to score more than 20 in any contest this season.

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