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Free Pick Breakdown Rangers v. Angels

By Taking Vegas
July 28, 2022
Photo by: Mark Terrill (AP Photo)

Texas at LA Angels 9:35 PM EST
Line: Angels -228
Total: 7.5
Pitching Match-up: Howard vs Ohtani

We say all the time that you do not need us to give you a favorite of over -200 in Baseball. We are quite certain you can figure that out on your own, but we do believe this line is slightly over inflated tonight. We know Ohtani has been dominant but laying a big number like this with a team that is 14 games under .500 isn’t overly wise.

For the purposes of this article, we are going to focus on the total which currently sits at 7.5. In the Angels last 10 games, one of the teams involved has scored 2 runs or fewer. In 8 of those 10 games, one of the teams has scored 1 run or fewer.

In 6 of Ohtani’s last 7 starts, he has allowed 1 earned run or fewer and he was pitching well in his last start until he ran into a bad 6th inning. Over his last 8 starts, the average final score has added up to 6.6 runs per game.

However, the Rangers and Angels have played 9 games this season and every single game has had at least 8 runs scored. When they match-up, they play high scoring games.

So which way to lean in this one? Well, we are going to go with the Under. Despite the fireworks against each other throughout the first 9 games, both teams come in struggling offensively.

Texas has scored 9 runs in their last 3 games while the Angels have scored 10 in their last 3 games. Ohtani should give a quality start while we expect 5 decent innings from Howard.

The Angels are 1-5 this season in their first game back home after a road trip of 6 games or more so be careful if you decide you just want to play a favorite here. We feel the under is the best bet as we expect no more than 6 runs to be scored.

TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: Under 7.5 Runs Rangers / Angels.

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