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Free Pick Breakdown UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State

By Taking Vegas
September 29, 2022
Photo by: John Rivera - Icon Sportswire

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

UTSA at Middle Tennessee St (9-30 @ 7:30 PM EST)
Line: UTSA -4.5
Total: 63


All 4 games that UTSA has played this year have gone over the posted total and since Middle Tennessee State lost their opening game to James Madison, they have rolled off 3 straight wins including last week’s impressive performance against a ranked (at the time) Miami team. In fact, in those 3 wins, Middle Tennessee State has scored 34, 49 and 45 points respectively.

We will admit, it is certainly a weird line that will make you look twice. The Blue Raiders just went on the road and thoroughly dominated a Miami team who only lost by 8 at Texas A&M. Middle Tennessee State put up over 500 yards of total offense last week and 408 of their yards came through the air.

UTSA has had problems in coverage this season as they are the same team that allowed 304 passing yards to Army. You can count on one hand the amount of times Army has thrown for over 300 yards probably in your lifetime. In fairness, they didn’t allow many passing yards to Texas however, they allowed 298 yards on the ground to the Longhorns. This is a defense that has not been able to put a solid game together all season long and they are susceptible to allowing big plays.

On the flip side of that though is Middle Tennessee State and their defense which isn’t all too good. They have allowed an average of 25 points per game this season and they are the same defense that allowed 44 against JMU. They too are bad in pass coverage and are also susceptible to allowing big plays.

Both offenses are better than the defenses they are playing which we feel will lead to a high scoring game.  Last year, only 40 points were scored between these two teams when they met however, the year prior there were 72 points scored. Both of those games were played at UTSA. Now Middle Tennessee State gets them at home which will only help their offense even more so. Maybe it’s a let down spot for the Blue Raiders off the big win last week so we will stay away from the side, however, look for a game that easily exceeds this total.


TakingVegas.com 1* Free Pick: Over 63 Points UTSA / Middle Tennessee State

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