GOLDEN STATE at BOSTON
GAME 3 – NBA FINALS
9 PM EST ON ABC
LINE: CELTICS -3.5
The Boston fans get to watch their first NBA Finals game at home since their Game 5 win against the LA Lakers in the 2010 Finals, so you know there is going to be some great excitement in the TD Garden on Wednesday evening. That doesn’t always translate into a victory for the home team though as it was a great atmosphere in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals when Boston had a 3-2 lead against Miami and the Celtics were pretty much never in that game.
For the most part, the Celtics have not been a great home team in the playoffs this season. They are 5-4 straight-up and 4-5 ATS. They lost 2 of their 3 home games vs Miami and they lost 2 of their 4 home games vs Milwaukee.
Golden State is a battle tested team in these situations while Boston is not and that could play a huge role this evening. Something else that is important is what Klay Thompson will show up. If you think about this series, the Warriors have played 1 bad quarter, which was the 4th quarter in Game 1. Of the 8 quarters played in this series, Golden State has won 6 of them and they have done so with Klay Thompson scoring a total of 26 points in the 2 games while shooting 10 of 33 from the field and 4 of 15 from behind the arc. Those are flat out terrible numbers for one of the games premier shooters and realistically, if Boston doesn’t make basically every shot in the 4th quarter of Game 1, Golden State would be up 2-0 in this series.
Wiggins hasn’t played great in this series either despite a decent Game 1. He was not good in Game 2 but if he and Thompson just play to their averages, Boston is going to have a tough time winning this game by 4 points.
Another thing to look at regarding the Celtics is their first home games of these playoff series. In Round 1 they beat the Nets by 1 on a Tatum buzzer-beating layup. They did not cover. In Round 2 they lost their first home game by 12 to Milwaukee. In Round 3, they lost their first home playoff game to Miami by 6. For whatever the reason, they have not played well in their first home playoff game in a series. as they are 0-3 ATS in those games. Now, the flip side to that is they have not lost back-to-back games this entire postseason, which is impressive. So, which way do you lean tonight?
Our original pick was the Warriors to win this series in 7 games and obviously we are staying with that. We feel Golden State is a value pick here at +3.5 and we even like them at +130 on the money line as we feel they simply have too much offensively for Boston to constantly defend. Again, take away 1 ridiculous quarter for the Celtics in this series and they are down 0-2. We will ride the Warriors in Game 3.
TakingVegas.com 1* Free NBA Picks. Warriors +3.5 / Warriors +130
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