GOLDEN STATE @ NEW ORLEANS
Line: Pelicans -3.5
We almost nailed the final score with our free pick in the NFL yesterday as we had the Under in the Jets / Giants game with a predicted outcome of 16-13. The final was 13-10.
Now we go over to the NBA for Monday night, and this is what you call a bad spot for the Warriors. As of 12:33 pm est, the Warriors are +3.5 in this one and they are coming off a road win last night in Houston.
Last year the Warriors played 10 back-to-back games on the road. They went 2-8 in those 10 games and lost those games by an average of 17 points. Even worse, they allowed an average of 126 points in those 10 games as they played no defense whatsoever on the 2nd night of back-to-back games.
Now they get an improved Pelicans team that is 2-0 and playing some great defense as they have allowed 191 points total in their 2 games. Granted, those 2 wins came against the Knicks and Grizzlies but in today’s NBA, only allowing 191 points in 2 games is extremely good.
Golden State obviously has an older roster and that began to show last year in these back-to-back spots as we have outlined. They weren’t bad last year in this spot when they were the home team but when they were the road team, it was a disaster.
Don’t expect much change in this spot. New Orleans played home on Saturday night and got the benefit of the day off yesterday while their opponent had to play a game and then travel. We know going from Houston to New Orleans isn’t overly hard in terms of travel but it’s still a road back to back and those are never, ever easy, especially for older squads.
Look for New Orleans to take full advantage of that this evening. Our metrics tell us New Orleans should win this game by 9 to 12 points so we will lay the points here.