NBA Final Prediction and Breakdown - Taking Vegas



NBA Final Prediction and Breakdown

By TakingVegas Staff Writer
June 3, 2024




Everyone understands that Boston had one of the easier trips to the NBA Finals that we will ever see. They caught Miami without Butler; they caught Cleveland without Mitchell for 2 games, and they caught Indiana without Haliburton for 2 games. That’s not to say they wouldn’t have advanced to the NBA Finals anyway and let’s not forget they had their own injury with Porzingis going down in the first round. That said, this was a way easier path to the Championship Round than Dallas had, and we believe it is why many people feel Dallas will not only be competitive in this series but win it. That is a mistake. This is a mismatch of epic proportions and anything that goes past 5 games would highly surprise us.

Boston easily beat Dallas in both games this year and in those games, Dallas did not have one player with a plus / minus in the positive. Every single player in both games finished either negative or at zero. This is noteworthy because in the first game, Kyrie and Luca combined for 56 points with a -13 and in the 2nd game they went for 56 points with a -35.

Boston shot 47% from the floor in the first meeting (Without Porzingis) and won by 9. They shot 56% from the floor in the 2nd game with Porzingis and won by 28. Boston creates mismatches all over the floor for Dallas and while the Mavericks might have the best player on the floor in Luca Doncic, the Celtics simply have the better, deeper, more experienced team. The only players that have played in an NBA Finals on the Mavericks are Kyrie and Markieff Morris and Morris is not in the rotation for Dallas, so he really doesn’t even count.

The metrics also favor the Celtics as their net rating this postseason of 10.3 dwarfs the second-best net rating team which was OKC at +6.5. Boston also has a knack for winning close games as there were 4 instances this postseason where the game was within 5 points with 5 or less minutes left, and Boston won all 4 of those games with a massive net rating of just under 44 points.

With a healthy Porzingis, everyone on the Celtics bench gets pushed down a peg which makes them that much deeper, and Dallas is going to have an extremely tough time in the high pick and roll with Horford and Porzingis being able to shoot the 3-ball very efficiently. Mind you, we have not even gotten to Tatum and Brown yet who scored 73 points combined in the first game vs Dallas with a +21 and 57 points in the 2nd game with a +33.

This is such a mismatch on every level and even though the line is high at -205 for the series, that presents great value because it should be much higher. This should be 4-1 or at the very worst 4-2 so you can play Boston in the series and Boston -1.5 games at +105.