The NFL Coach of the Year Award is not always given to the best coach, but the one that has shown some improvement. The storyline of perseverance typically trumps what the win-loss record is and we have some interesting candidates at the top of the odds list. Let’s dive into four coaches with the best odds of winning the award and discuss if they have a realistic chance.
Dan Campbell (+850)
The Detroit Lions have been the darling of the media and are expected to take the next step to the postseason. Campbell is ready to bite some kneecaps but it feels like this Lions team has already shown what it is capable of last season. It is hard to see him as the person to win the award with all the hype the Lions have coming into the season.
The only way it can happen is if Detroit wins the NFC North and they have some interesting spots on the roster. The defense has a weakness at the cornerback position and if they do not win 10+ games, it feels like there will be another story here.
Sean Payton (+900)
Coming out of retirement, Sean Payton has a chance to win the Coach of the Year Award with the Denver Broncos. The Broncos were one of the biggest disappointments last season and if Payton can turn things around, it will definitely be hard to not have him win. He has a Super Bowl Champion quarterback in Russell Wilson and a stacked defense. In the AFC North with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, it can be tough.
However, Payton has shown to do well with an undersized quarterback and the defense proves they do not need elite quarterback play to win games. I’d put some money on Payton as he should be exactly what this Broncos team needs on the sideline.
Matt Eberflus (+1100)
This feels like a make or break year for the Chicago Bears after having the first overall pick and trading it away. This team has gotten better in the offseason and if Justin Fields is able to be successful throwing the football, the NFC North can be won by the Bears. He was 3-14 last season so if he is able to get to .500, it will be difficult to imagine another coach getting that jump in wins. This feels like Eberflus has a chance but I would wait a week or two into the season to see how this team plays out the gates.
Arthur Smith (+1400)
Arthur Smith is who I think has the best shot of winning the Coach of the Year Award. He is in a crummy NFC South and has the only quarterback returning to the team from last season. With a young offensive core, this Falcons team is primed to be a winner. Desmond Ridder has shown flashes and with an offense with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Cordarelle Patterson they should play well.
The secondary of AJ Terrell, Jessie Bates and Jeff Okudah while getting pressure up front with Calais Cambell, Bud Dupree and Grady Jarrett it is hard to see more talent in the division. This team has an extremely easy schedule and should be able to win a bunch of games so why shouldn’t Arthur Smith win the award? We are getting a great price here too so run to the sportsbooks and place this wager.
