Part 9 of our 11 Part Series and today we focus on the AFC WEST.
ODDS TO WIN DIVISION:
Denver +260
Kansas City +160
Las Vegas +600
Los Angeles Chargers +225
The toughest division in the NFL as each of these teams not only have division title aspirations but Super Bowl Aspirations. Each team can win this division, but the problem is, will they beat each other up?
We are going to look at the value play here and obviously, going by the lines, that team is Las Vegas at 6 to 1. The Raiders went 10-7 last season and closed the regular season with 4 straight wins to get into the playoffs. They lost a playoff game on the road to Cincinnati, but we aren’t going to fault them for that. This was a team in turmoil last season with the Henry Ruggs accident and Gruden being fired yet they persevered and won 10 games.
Adding Davante Adams will make their offense that much better and with Josh McDaniels being the head coach, we expect this offense to be very dynamic. On defense, they added Chandler Jones and that will significantly upgrade the pass rush of a defense that ranked 26th in the league last year. That unit should be much improved this season which will keep Las Vegas in games long enough for their offense to make plays.
Look, this is the toughest division to call, by far. Kansas City has won this division for 6 straight years, but they certainly lost some talent on offense with Tyreek Hill being traded to Miami. They could take a step back and with them as the favorite to win this division at +160, we don’t believe there is great value.
Denver has the best defense in the division and added Russel Wilson certainly improves the team. They also have 2 real good running backs that will help take pressure off Wilson but he does have a propensity for taking sacks and it wouldn’t shock us if he got hurt at some point this season.
The most talented team in the division very well may be the LA Chargers, but we simply do not trust their head coach. They find a way to lose games they shouldn’t lose, and we don’t expect that to change this season.
So, with all this being said, we are going with the value here at 6 to 1 with Las Vegas. They will have every opportunity to be playing meaningful games as the season winds down and we may have some good hedge chances as the last few games are being played.
Take Las Vegas at 6 to 1
