Under 71.5 Wins
We feel this is a great value play right here and one that you should be excited to take advantage of. Here’s why. Colorado is 43-50 this season through 93 games which means they are on pace to win 75 games. So many of you might be doing quick math in your head and concluded that Over 71.5 wins provides some value. It does not.
For starters, Colorado is a solid 28-23 at home. They are a dreadful 15-27 on the road. Of their 69 games remaining, 40 of them are on the road. They have won 35% of their road games this season so if we prorate that over the next 40 road games, they will finish with just 14 more road wins.
So, if they accomplish that, it will put them at 57 wins which means they would only need to win 15 home games to beat us. But let’s look a little deeper. Of those remaining 40 road games, 28 of them come against teams that, if the season ended today, would be playing an MLB playoff game. It is safe to assume that they will not win 35% of their road games against the road schedule they have. They will win less.
Also, here is a brief run down of their 69 remaining games overall:
10 vs LA Dodgers
9 vs SF Giants
10 vs SF Giants
7 vs Milwaukee
6 vs St Louis
4 vs NY Mets
3 vs Atlanta
That is 49 total games of their 69 remaining against teams that are currently in the playoffs. Also, Colorado ends the season with 16 games against the Giants, Padres, and Dodgers. There is a great chance that all those teams will be playing for something while Colorado will be a team looking forward to the end of the season and not playing for anything.
One last thing. Colorado has the toughest remaining strength of schedule. The teams they have left have a winning % of .532.
For the Rockies to win 28 games against this tough schedule with 40 road games remaining is a tall order. It may not seem like it if you look quickly, but Colorado Under 71.5 wins presents great value when research is done.